Beta play on Bitcoin

Catalysts

• MARA owns 13,716 BTC and price is expected to keep growing in the next 12 months.
• MARA is well capitalised and will benefit from less capitalised miners going bankrupt after recent halving.
• 30% reduction in mining costs expected thanks to smart acquisitions, I expect significant profitability growth in the coming quarters.
• While mining rewards just halved, transaction fees have recently skyrocketed thanks inscriptions such as ordinals, runes etc... hard to say at this stage if this is going to be sustained.

Assumptions

• BTC price will be multiple higher in 5 years time.
• MARA can increase its profitability
• MARA will continue its transition to greener energy sources and avoid potential new regulations on energy consumption.

Risks

• REGULATORY: depending on the outcome of this year US elections, more headwinds will come in case Democrats will win (eg. special tax on miners due to high energy consumption). Conversely, a win by the Republican party may turn out to be favourable.
• Yet to be seen if those acquisitions are going to be effective at increasing margins and reducing costs.
• historically btc miners have been used as investment proxy for BTC. With a Spot ETF and more bitcoin public companies available to investors, miners might get less attention from

Valuation

• I expect MARA to remain the US leader in BTC mining and keep growing revenues and margins.