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Short Term Take: NVIDIA GPUs will power the rebound from a supposed tech overreaction

CH
CHPNot Invested
Community Contributor
Published
January 29 2025
Updated
January 29 2025
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CHP's Fair Value
US$150.00
18.9% undervalued intrinsic discount
29 Jan
US$121.67
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37.6%
7D
13.7%

NVIDIA's stock price has recently declined to $116, which I perceive as an overreaction by the market. I have entered a position from to $128 and executed a swing trade from $128 to a TP of $141, based on technical analysis indicating a potential rise to close the gap at $141.

This downturn appears to be a response to news about DeepSeek.ai's latest AI model, R1, which was reportedly trained at a cost of approximately $5.6 million. It's important to note that this figure represents only the training costs and excludes other significant expenses, such as infrastructure and development. Additionally, DeepSeek utilized NVIDIA's H800 GPUs in their model development, underscoring NVIDIA's continued relevance in the AI sector.

I believe that many investors view this price drop as an opportunity to invest in NVIDIA stock, given the ongoing interest in AI technology. From a technical perspective, the stock has reached a historically strong demand zone and is showing signs of recovery. My target price is set at $141, corresponding to the closure of the gap that occurred during the sudden price decline.

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US$170.26
FV
28.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
25.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
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CHP'sFair Value
US$150.0
18.9% undervalued intrinsic discount
Future estimation in
PastFuture0174b20142017202020232025202620292030Revenue US$173.8bEarnings US$96.8b
% p.a.
Decrease
Increase
Current revenue growth rate
20.48%
Semiconductors revenue growth rate
0.92%