FSLR: U.S. Manufacturing Expansion And Policy Trends Will Guide Balanced Outlook

The analyst price target for First Solar rose modestly to $271.61 from $269.64. Analysts cited supportive factors such as recent Q3 results, expanding U.S. capacity, and policy tailwinds.

Analyst Commentary

Analyst reactions to First Solar's recent performance and outlook reflect both optimism about the company’s positioning and some ongoing caution around sector headwinds and future risks. The following summarizes the main bullish and bearish takeaways from recent Street research:

• Bullish analysts continue to raise price targets, citing greater policy tailwinds and enhanced U.S. manufacturing capacity as drivers for re-rating the stock higher.
• The company is viewed as the structurally advantaged domestic supplier, benefiting from durable pricing power and favorable IRA/FEOC alignment. This supports both near-term and long-term growth expectations.
• Multiple new finishing plants in the U.S. are expected to reduce tariff and FEOC exposure. This could improve profit visibility and risk management for international production.
• Improved order books and anticipated catalysts, such as increased finishing capacity and updates related to Section 232, are expected to help drive share price momentum in the coming quarters.

• Bearish analysts note that downside risks remain from glass supply constraints, contract terminations, and incremental tariffs on imports from India, which may impact profitability and fiscal 2025 guidance.
• Some research cautions that quarterly bookings could be light, with execution challenges tied to supply chain and margin recovery still unresolved for the longer term.
• Near-term upside may be constrained by macroeconomic headwinds, including higher-for-longer interest rates and shifting demand preferences, particularly among larger power buyers.
• A few analysts signal that, despite overall positive positioning, the stock's valuation appears to already reflect much of the expected policy benefit and structural advantages. This could limit further upside without additional catalysts.

What's in the News

• The White House is considering canceling an additional $12 billion in clean energy funding, which may affect companies like First Solar and other major industry players (Semafor).
• First Solar has inaugurated a new, fully vertically integrated manufacturing facility in Iberia Parish, Louisiana. The $1.1 billion plant will employ over 700 people and significantly expand the company’s U.S. production capacity.
• The company plans to open a new facility in Gaffney, South Carolina, focusing on the final production of Series 6Plus modules. Commercial operations are targeted for the second half of 2026. The project will create over 600 new jobs and add 3.7 GW to annual manufacturing capacity.
• First Solar updated its 2025 guidance and has narrowed its net sales and operating income forecasts. Projected earnings per diluted share are now expected to range from $14.00 to $15.00, tightened from prior estimates.

Valuation Changes

• Consensus Analyst Price Target has increased slightly to $271.61 from $269.64.
• Discount Rate has decreased modestly to 10.51% from 10.63%.
• Revenue Growth expectation is essentially unchanged, now at 12.47% compared to the previous 12.48%.
• Net Profit Margin has declined slightly to 46.34% from 47.50%.
• Future P/E ratio has increased moderately to 11.89x from 11.55x.