Narratives are currently in beta
AMD is continuing to steal market share from Intel while lagging behind Nvidia. They had stagnated revenues for the past 2 years and seem to be entering a stage in which their data center side of the business is starting to flourish. Id, imagine we continue to see them steal data center market share from intel considering the lack of competitiveness intel has shown in the CPU market. I'd expect over the coming years consumers begin to upgrade their gaming computers and personal desktops. Maybe not at the level seen during the pandemic, but an improvement none the less. AMD has a WIDE moat when it comes to CPUS. Nvidia seems to be the GOAT when it comes to GPUS and A.I. but with Nvidia's lack of inventory and focus on building out their A.I infrastructure, we could see gamers "settle" for AMD gpu's due to their availability. Boosting AMDs revenue. As for the A.I sector. AMD is aggressively investing and pursuing Nvidia. I believe they will continue to create a more competitive A.I chip as they did with their CPU's VS Intel. It is simply a matter of will Nvidia be able to continue to outpace them. AMD in their latest earning call has pushed forward mi355 A.I chips to mid-year and are aggressively trying to get mi400 chips done and into server racks to catch up to Nvidia's Blackwell. Whether they can catch and surpass Nvidia is to be determined. But as of now CapEX dedication from large corporations actually increased after the Deepseek scare. My valuation model projects a forward PE of 30x in 2030 as well as an increase in AMDs net profit margins from 7% to 25%. I think revenue estimates of 60 billion by 2030 may be a bit conservative. But I prefer a conservative outlook as to avoid overhype.
How well do narratives help inform your perspective?