Update shared on 26 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 0.92%Etsy's analyst price target has been raised slightly, with the consensus now at about $68.59. Analysts cite improving gross merchandise sales growth as well as ongoing benefits from AI-driven strategies and product enhancements.
Analyst Commentary
Recent analyst updates offer a mix of optimism and caution on Etsy's valuation, strategy, and forward growth trajectory. Perspectives diverge on how effectively Etsy can sustain momentum amid shifting e-commerce dynamics and internal changes.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts cite Etsy's improving gross merchandise sales growth, with several successive quarters showing positive consolidated performance for both Etsy and its subsidiaries.
- The integration of AI-driven features, such as AI-powered recommendations and early ChatGPT partnerships, is viewed as a catalyst for enhanced user engagement, search capabilities, and inventory differentiation.
- Marketing efficiency improvements and a stronger focus on driving app usage are expected to reignite user growth and support a more favorable trajectory for key business metrics.
- Price target upgrades from multiple firms reflect increased confidence in Etsy's ability to execute on its strategic initiatives. Higher targets anticipate earnings resilience and future upside from AI innovation.
Bearish Takeaways
- Bearish analysts raise concerns about the company’s margin outlook, pointing to guidance that suggests contraction and a possible modest decline in adjusted EBITDA for 2026.
- The recent CEO transition has injected some uncertainty regarding execution and future leadership decisions, prompting caution among some market watchers.
- There is skepticism about the sustainability of the current growth trajectory, especially amid unresolved debates around long-term trends and the impact of broader tariff headwinds.
- The pace of innovation, while positive, may not fully mitigate potential challenges from competing e-commerce strategies and an evolving technology landscape. This keeps some analysts neutral or cautious on valuation.
What's in the News
- Kruti Patel Goyal, currently President and Chief Growth Officer, has been appointed to become Chief Executive Officer of Etsy effective January 1, 2026, succeeding Josh Silverman (Key Developments).
- Etsy completed a significant share buyback, purchasing 2,056,000 shares for $119.82 million in the most recent quarter. This brings total repurchases under the ongoing program to over 11.5% of outstanding shares (Key Developments).
- Etsy has been removed from the Nasdaq Composite Index (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target: Lowered slightly from $69.23 to $68.59, reflecting a modest decrease in perceived fair value.
- Discount Rate: Increased from 9.94% to 10.10%, which suggests a marginally higher risk premium in valuation models.
- Revenue Growth: Slightly decreased from 4.95% to 4.89%, indicating a minor adjustment to anticipated top-line expansion.
- Net Profit Margin: Edged up from 11.36% to 11.41%, which shows a small improvement in expected profitability.
- Future P/E: Decreased modestly from 19.39x to 19.25x, indicating a slight reduction in expected earnings multiple.
Disclaimer
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