Update shared on 01 Nov 2025
Fair value Increased 1.10%The analyst price target for Five Below has edged higher from approximately $160.10 to $161.86. This reflects analyst confidence in stronger revenue growth and improving profit margins, supported by positive sales momentum, experienced new leadership, and an accelerating business turnaround.
Analyst Commentary
Recent Street research has reflected a mix of optimism and caution regarding Five Below's outlook. A number of price target increases and rating upgrades indicate confidence in the company's ability to drive growth and deliver stronger results, while others urge a more measured approach as certain risks persist.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts highlight accelerating business momentum, with notable rebounds in comparable sales (up 7% in Q1 and 12% in Q2), signaling effective turnaround efforts and positive operating trends.
- Several price target increases cite improved merchandise assortments and stronger store execution, which are expected to support further revenue growth and margin expansion in the coming quarters.
- Recent leadership appointments, particularly in merchandising and finance roles, are viewed as enhancing the company’s ability to navigate strategic shifts and maintain long-term stability.
- Unit growth and strong consumer demand for value are considered key drivers of potential earnings outperformance, with some bullish analysts suggesting that current guidance and consensus estimates could be exceeded.
- Bearish analysts warn that much of the recent upside is tied to one-time or external factors, such as tariff-driven price changes, competitor closures, and shifts in import regulation, which may not be sustainable over time.
- Despite earnings beats and sales momentum, there is concern about minimal forecasted EPS growth in the next fiscal years, which could limit the potential for further valuation expansion.
- Tariff pressures, harder year-over-year comparisons, and diminishing benefits from rival store closures are seen as headwinds that may weigh on profitability through 2026.
- Some analysts advise that the risk/reward profile is becoming balanced at current share price levels, pointing to uncertainty around the sustained impact of recent positive developments.
What's in the News
- Five Below announced plans to expand into the Pacific Northwest with eight new store openings across Washington and Oregon in November, marking the retailer’s regional debut (Business Expansions).
- The Board of Directors appointed Daniel Sullivan as Chief Financial Officer effective October 6, 2025. Sullivan brings over 35 years of finance and operations experience, including roles at Edgewell Personal Care, Party City, and Heineken (Executive Changes, CFO).
- Five Below released updated full-year 2025 guidance, projecting net sales of $4.44 billion to $4.52 billion and net income between $253 million and $275 million. This outlook is supported by the opening of approximately 150 net new stores and comparable sales growth of 5% to 7% (Corporate Guidance, Raised).
- For the third quarter of fiscal 2025, the company expects net sales between $950 million and $970 million, with anticipated net income of $5 million to $12 million, alongside 50 net new store openings (Corporate Guidance, New/Confirmed).
- Five Below completed its latest buyback tranche, repurchasing a total of 449,324 shares for $69.46 million under the program initiated in November 2023 (Buyback Tranche Update).
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen slightly from $160.10 to $161.86, suggesting a moderate upward revision in fair value estimates.
- Discount Rate has fallen marginally from 8.73% to 8.64%, reflecting a modest decrease in perceived investment risk.
- Revenue Growth expectations have edged higher from 10.18% to 10.22%, indicating slightly increased optimism for future top-line expansion.
- Net Profit Margin is up modestly from 6.24% to 6.31%, pointing to incremental anticipated improvement in overall profitability.
- Future P/E has declined very slightly from 32.05x to 31.91x, highlighting a small reduction in projected earnings multiple.
Disclaimer
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