AI And Faster Delivery Will Strengthen Future Operations

Key Takeaways

• Amazon's focus on cost efficiencies and AI capabilities is poised to improve net margins and profitability through enhanced delivery speed and operational efficiencies.
  
• Strategic growth in same-day delivery and pharmacy operations is expected to drive revenue by attracting customers and entering new markets.
  
• Fluctuating economic conditions, AI investments, competitive pressures, AWS constraints, and shifting consumer behavior could impact Amazon's profitability and market share.

Catalysts

Engages in the retail sale of consumer products, advertising, and subscriptions service through online and physical stores in North America and internationally.

• Amazon's commitment to improving cost efficiencies in its fulfillment network through regionalization, increased inventory placement, and advancements in robotics are expected to lower costs, enhance delivery speed, and therefore improve net margins and profitability.
  
• Expansion into same-day delivery facilities is likely to drive future revenue growth and net margin improvements by attracting more customers with faster and lower-cost deliveries.
  
• The growing AI and generative AI capabilities within AWS represent a substantial new revenue stream, with AI services showing triple-digit growth, likely leading to significant revenue and earnings growth.
  
• Further advancements and integration of generative AI applications across Amazon’s operations could enhance productivity and operational efficiencies, ultimately improving net margins.
  
• Strategic growth in Amazon's pharmacy operations and the expansion into new markets will likely increase revenue and potentially enhance net margins by tapping into a largely physical retail-focused sector.

Amazon.com Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Amazon.com's revenue will grow by 10.6% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 8.0% today to 11.4% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $95.4 billion (and earnings per share of $8.7) by about December 2027, up from $49.9 billion today.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 33.4x on those 2027 earnings, down from 48.7x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Multiline Retail industry at 20.2x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 1.39% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.94%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Amazon.com Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Fluctuations in foreign exchange rates and global economic conditions, such as recession fears, inflation, and interest rates, could unpredictably impact Amazon's revenue and profitability.
  
• Expanding investment in AI technology, including costly data centers and custom silicon, might strain capital and could affect near-term free cash flow if returns on investment are slower than anticipated.
  
• Increased competition from traditional retailers moving online could erode Amazon's market share and affect its revenue, especially if they successfully leverage store distribution for online sales.
  
• The capacity constraints in AWS, partly due to limited chip supply, could hinder potential growth in AWS revenue if demand outpaces supply capabilities.
  
• Lower average selling prices (ASPs) in consumer behavior, leaning towards essentials and discounted items, might impact Amazon's margins despite the benefit of increased unit sales.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $237.45 for Amazon.com based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $285.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $180.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2027, revenues will be $839.0 billion, earnings will come to $95.4 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 33.4x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.9%.
• Given the current share price of $231.15, the analyst's price target of $237.45 is 2.7% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.