Aging Populations And Genomics Will Drive Dupixent And EYLEA Adoption

Key Takeaways

• Expansion of core drug franchises, pipeline innovation, and new product approvals position Regeneron for continued revenue and margin growth.
  
• Strategic investments in manufacturing and R&D enable operational efficiency and rapid global commercialization of novel therapies.
  
• Intensifying competitive, regulatory, and pricing pressures threaten core product revenues and margins, while high costs and pipeline risks undermine future profitability and growth prospects.

Catalysts

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. discovers, invents, develops, manufactures, and commercializes medicines for treating various diseases worldwide.

• The accelerating global demand for advanced biologics, fueled by an aging population and rising incidence of chronic diseases, is expected to sustain long-term revenue growth for Regeneron's key products such as Dupixent and EYLEA HD, with further boosts likely from new indications and broader international penetration.
  
• Rapid adoption of precision and targeted therapies, driven by advances in genomics and personalized medicine, aligns with Regeneron's antibody-based R&D approach and robust late-stage pipeline, positioning the company for multiple blockbuster launches that can materially expand both revenues and operating margins over time.
  
• The company’s ongoing expansion and lifecycle management of lead franchises—including label enhancements, new formulations, and additional indications for EYLEA HD, Dupixent, and Libtayo—are set to improve operating leverage and preserve premium pricing, which should support margin expansion and fuel earnings outperformance.
  
• Significant forthcoming pipeline catalysts, including anticipated U.S. approvals in high-value markets (e.g., linvoseltamab for multiple myeloma, odronextamab for follicular lymphoma, and label updates for EYLEA HD and Dupixent), point to a near-term acceleration in revenue growth, with long-term upside supported by over 45 clinical programs targeting unmet needs in immunology, oncology, and rare diseases.
  
• Massive recent investments to double large-scale U.S. manufacturing capacity and expand R&D infrastructure are expected to enhance operational efficiency and support rapid commercial scale-up, reinforcing Regeneron’s ability to drive sustained topline growth, maintain industry-leading gross margins, and deliver increasing free cash flow and earnings.

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• This narrative explores a more optimistic perspective on Regeneron Pharmaceuticals compared to the consensus, based on a Fair Value that aligns with the bullish cohort of analysts.
• The bullish analysts are assuming Regeneron Pharmaceuticals's revenue will grow by 7.2% annually over the next 3 years.
• The bullish analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 31.9% today to 33.6% in 3 years time.
• The bullish analysts expect earnings to reach $5.8 billion (and earnings per share of $55.55) by about May 2028, up from $4.5 billion today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the more bullish analyst cohort, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 19.9x on those 2028 earnings, up from 13.1x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Biotechs industry at 18.3x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 2.06% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.21%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• EYLEA, a key revenue driver for the company, reported a dramatic 39% decline in US net sales year-over-year in Q1 2025, reflecting growing competition from low-cost alternatives like off-label Avastin, persistent patient affordability challenges, and shrinking wholesale inventory levels, all of which could result in continued pressure on overall top-line revenue.
  
• Regeneron’s reliance on charitable foundations for patient co-pay assistance to support premium pricing and access for products like EYLEA is under strain, as the company acknowledged its inability to solely fund these foundations going forward; if funding gaps persist or competitors do not contribute, this could suppress branded prescription volumes and lead to significant long-term revenue erosion and margin compression.
  
• Heightened regulatory scrutiny and an increased rate of Complete Response Letters (CRLs) for Regeneron’s product submissions—including the recent EYLEA HD pre-filled syringe rejection—signal elevated operational and pipeline risk, potentially delaying product launches, complicating approvals, and reducing the timing and probability of new revenue streams, which could stunt future earnings growth.
  
• Industry-wide pricing pressure driven by ongoing US and EU drug pricing scrutiny, Medicare reimbursement redesign, and the shift to value-based care directly threaten Regeneron’s ability to maintain elevated prices for flagship products like Dupixent and EYLEA over time, placing downward pressure on both net revenue and operating margins.
  
• Sustained high R&D and SG&A costs, combined with a mixed track record of late-stage clinical success outside of Dupixent and EYLEA, create a scenario where disappointing performance of new product launches or further declines in existing blockbusters may not be offset, risking reduced profitability and EPS growth even as operating expenses remain elevated.

Valuation

• The assumed bullish price target for Regeneron Pharmaceuticals is $979.0, which is the highest price target estimate amongst analysts. This valuation is based on what can be assumed as the expectations of Regeneron Pharmaceuticals's future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors from analysts on the bullish end of the spectrum.
• However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $979.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $535.0.
• In order for you to agree with the bullish analysts, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $17.3 billion, earnings will come to $5.8 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 19.9x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.2%.
• Given the current share price of $558.52, the bullish analyst price target of $979.0 is 42.9% higher.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.