Curated Mobile Events Will Expand Digital Marketplace Reach

Key Takeaways

• Focus on curated local events, personalization, and mobile innovation is boosting user engagement, conversion rates, and retention, driving revenue growth and margin expansion.
  
• Diversified revenue streams, category focus, and disciplined cost management are enhancing profitability, operating leverage, and earnings resilience against market shifts.
  
• Eventbrite faces declining core metrics, margin pressure from business model shifts, escalating competition, and leadership changes, all threatening growth, profitability, and operational stability.

Catalysts

Operates a two-sided marketplace that provides self-service ticketing and marketing tools for event creators in the United States and internationally.

• Eventbrite is capitalizing on growing consumer demand for curated, local, and interest-based events, as shown by a 13% increase in app users and a 16% increase in event discovery users year-over-year, suggesting that its accessible self-service platform is well-aligned with shifting consumer preferences—driving future revenue growth and user retention.
  
• The company’s investments in personalization, event discovery, and mobile optimization—including a redesigned app and successful TikTok integration—are resulting in significantly higher buyer conversion rates among app users (3x more likely to buy than web users) and improved retention, directly supporting increases in paid ticket volume and engagement, which should positively impact top-line revenue and margin expansion.
  
• Rapid adoption and strong performance of new product features like Eventbrite Ads (up 30% YoY) and Timed Entry (growing nearly 40%) are expanding the platform’s reach into higher-frequency event formats and enabling more creators to scale and automate, opening up new revenue streams and supporting higher take rates, thereby improving revenue growth and operating leverage over time.
  
• Strategic geographic and category focus, including targeted curation in high-liquidity verticals (music, food & drink, culture, performing arts) through influencer partnerships, is leading to greater creator retention and higher conversion rates, which enhances resilience and stability in earnings by diversifying revenue away from pure volume-dependent transactions.
  
• Sustained cost discipline, with operating expenses down 14% YoY and ongoing prioritization of investment in growth levers (consumer engagement, ads, creator tools), is expected to drive further improvement in adjusted EBITDA margins and long-term profitability as Eventbrite recovers ticketing volume and executes on high-margin digital marketplace opportunities.

Eventbrite Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Eventbrite's revenue will grow by 6.3% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts are not forecasting that Eventbrite will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate Eventbrite's profit margin will increase from -5.7% to the average US Entertainment industry of 9.7% in 3 years.
• If Eventbrite's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach $36.4 million (and earnings per share of $0.38) by about May 2028, up from $-17.7 million today.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 11.6x on those 2028 earnings, up from -12.0x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Entertainment industry at 21.1x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 0.22% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 11.41%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Eventbrite Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Eventbrite continues to experience year-over-year declines in both paid ticket volume (down 7.7% in Q1) and paid creator count, with revenue still meaningfully affected by the elimination of higher-margin organizer fees; this sustained pressure in core business metrics could limit long-term revenue growth and compress both gross profit and net margins.
  
• The company’s strategy relies heavily on attracting and retaining smaller, more frequent event organizers, but this market segment is inherently fragmented and can be more vulnerable to economic downturns or competitive offerings, heightening risks of customer churn and creating difficulty scaling average transaction size, which could negatively impact future revenue and earnings.
  
• Margin contraction is apparent as gross margin dropped from 71% to 67% year-over-year, mainly due to the revenue mix shift away from organizer fees; continued reliance on lower-margin revenue streams and sustained high operating expenses may threaten the ability to deliver meaningful long-term operating leverage and profitability.
  
• Eventbrite faces ongoing competitive threats from both large, vertically integrated incumbents (e.g., Live Nation/Ticketmaster) and free or low-cost alternatives (such as Facebook Events and Meetup), potentially undermining fee/pricing power and market share, which poses downside risk to revenue growth and overall earnings quality.
  
• Recent executive departures, including the CTO and Chief Legal/People Officer, could disrupt operational momentum, innovation pace, or culture at a critical time of transformation; any execution missteps in leadership transition may slow product development or impact financial discipline, putting net margins and recovery trajectory at further risk.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $3.2 for Eventbrite based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
  
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $375.3 million, earnings will come to $36.4 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 11.6x, assuming you use a discount rate of 11.4%.
  
• Given the current share price of $2.21, the analyst price target of $3.2 is 30.9% higher.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.