TTD: Future Share Strength Will Build On AI Product And Buyback Execution

Analysts have trimmed their price targets on Trade Desk by a few dollars, with fair value estimates moving from about $62.33 to $61.12 as they balance concerns about elevated multiples and competitive noise against solid Q3 execution, improving ad demand, AI driven product catalysts, and what they describe as relatively derisked forward estimates.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research paints a mixed but generally constructive picture around Trade Desk, with most price target changes reflecting recalibration of expectations rather than a fundamental shift in the long term story.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts point to better Q3 results and higher Q4 guidance as evidence that execution is holding up, even as they reset price targets to account for richer multiples.
• Several reports highlight AI driven products such as Kokai and other product catalysts as key supports for future revenue growth and potential upside to current estimates.
• Commentary around broader ad demand and a relatively healthy macro backdrop suggests that underlying end market conditions are not a primary concern in current valuation resets.
• Some bullish analysts describe the stock as depressed with forward estimates that look extremely derisked, which they see as a potential setup for positive revisions if execution stays on track.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts trimming targets, including those cutting from levels such as US$135 to US$85 or US$60 to US$45, are mainly reacting to elevated valuation multiples rather than a collapse in fundamentals.
• Competitive noise, including disruption around certain DSP relationships flagged in peer commentary, is feeding concern that Trade Desk may face tougher share and pricing dynamics over time.
• Some research leans into worries about slowing growth, even if others see those fears as overblown, which helps explain why targets are edging down even after what is described as a beat and raise quarter.
• A few analysts caution that Internet stocks as a group may not repeat prior years of outperformance given current valuations, which acts as a cap on how aggressively they are willing to model multiple expansion for Trade Desk.

What’s in the News

• The Trade Desk, Inc was removed from the NASDAQ-100 Index, which may affect how some index and benchmark focused funds are exposed to the stock. (Index Constituent Drops)
• Intuit Inc. made its SMB MediaLabs audiences available on The Trade Desk, giving advertisers access to Intuit's first party small and mid market business audience segments and allowing more precise SMB targeting across channels such as connected TV, audio, display, and digital out of home. (Client Announcements)
• From July 1, 2025 to October 31, 2025, the company repurchased 6,229,482 shares, representing 1.27%, for US$375.05m, completing a total buyback of 28,890,482 shares, or 5.88%, for US$1.91138b under the program announced on February 15, 2023. (Buyback Tranche Update)
• For the fourth quarter of 2025, The Trade Desk, Inc. issued guidance that it expects revenue of at least US$840m. (Corporate Guidance)

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value: trimmed slightly from US$62.33 to US$61.12 per share.
• Discount Rate: effectively unchanged at about 6.96%.
• Revenue Growth: nudged up modestly from about 15.84% to 15.95%.
• Net Profit Margin: inched higher from about 18.78% to 19.23% in the model.
• Future P/E: eased from about 41.9x to 40.0x, reflecting a slightly lower multiple assumption.