AnalystConsensusTarget updated the narrative for CRTO

Analysts have adjusted their average price target for Criteo downward from $38.17 to $35.92. This change is attributed to solid recent results; however, it is offset by lighter guidance and slower-than-expected client growth, which is impacting near-term retail media performance.

Analyst Commentary

Following Criteo’s latest earnings report and guidance, analysts have provided a range of perspectives on the company’s near-term outlook and strategic position. While some have increased their price targets, citing strong third-quarter results, cautiousness remains regarding upcoming quarters.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts raised price targets after Criteo delivered solid financial results in the third quarter, surpassing expectations for both net revenue and EBITDA.
• Recent commentary highlights the company’s ongoing focus on retail media growth, which is viewed as a key driver for future performance.
• Some analysts see potential for increased strategic activity in the broader ad-tech sector. They note that Criteo could benefit from industry consolidation and trends in mergers and acquisitions.
• Management commentary indicates that slower client ramp in Q4 is not expected to impact long-term growth targets. This supports a more optimistic view toward the company’s 2026 run-rate.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts point to lighter Q4 guidance and slower-than-expected client onboarding in retail media, contributing to a more conservative near-term outlook.
• There is concern that short-term client ramp issues may weigh on retail media performance in upcoming quarters.
• Some analysts continue to maintain neutral ratings. While they acknowledge improved execution, they suggest that valuation remains constrained by external headwinds and uncertainty in client growth trajectories.

What's in the News

• Criteo and DoorDash entered a multi-year partnership to expand advertising across DoorDash's marketplace. This partnership provides advertisers with new formats and channels to reach consumers at the point of purchase (Key Developments).
• Criteo announced a strategic integration with Google as its first onsite retail media partner. This allows brands to scale advertising through Google Search Ads 360 and provides unified campaign measurement for retailers (Key Developments).
• The company has continued its share repurchase program, completing the buyback of over 21.2 million shares for $687 million. This represents more than 37% of total shares since 2021 (Key Developments).
• Criteo reaffirmed its commitment to investing in organic growth and pursuing acquisitions, as outlined by the CFO during its Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• Consensus Analyst Price Target has declined from $38.17 to $35.92, reflecting a modest downward adjustment in expectations.
• Discount Rate has decreased slightly from 7.28% to 7.23%, indicating a small reduction in perceived risk for Criteo’s future cash flows.
• Revenue Growth projections have improved marginally, with the rate moving from -19.16% to -18.73%. This suggests a slightly less negative outlook on top-line growth.
• Net Profit Margin has edged down from 14.38% to 13.97%, signaling a small decline in expected profitability.
• Future P/E Ratio has increased significantly from 14.03x to 19.92x. This points to higher valuation multiples being applied to forward earnings.