Update shared on 22 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 20%Bumble's analyst price targets have seen a significant downward revision. Targets have dropped from around $6 to below $5 per share, as analysts cite ongoing revenue headwinds and slower progress from business restructuring and quality-focused initiatives.
Analyst Commentary
Recent analyst reports reflect a mix of caution and limited optimism regarding Bumble's growth prospects and valuation following the latest round of earnings and strategic updates.
Bullish Takeaways
- Some analysts remain constructive on management's long-term vision. They highlight ongoing quality-first strategies and broader product revamps as positive steps that could improve the user experience over time.
- A few believe that recent restructuring and user base clean-up efforts, though disruptive in the short term, could create a stronger foundation for sustainable growth in the future.
- There is cautious optimism that, despite near-term headwinds, a focus on trust and safety initiatives may eventually support a turnaround and stabilize user trends by mid-2026.
Bearish Takeaways
- Bearish analysts express concern over persistent revenue headwinds, driven by weaker payer trends and limited visibility into near- and medium-term growth.
- Recent marketing budget pullbacks and headcount restructuring in research and development are seen as potentially exacerbating engagement losses and delaying any recovery.
- Downgrades and price target cuts stem from skepticism about the pace and effectiveness of Bumble's execution. This sentiment is particularly strong as the company faces increased competition and internal adjustments.
- Some major firms note that improvements in key operating metrics and user numbers are unlikely in the immediate future, contributing to more conservative valuations.
What's in the News
- Bumble is developing a new artificial intelligence-powered matchmaking app in secret. A beta version is planned for select users this fall (Wall Street Journal).
- CEO Wolfe Herd has directly overseen the AI matchmaking project since her return to Bumble in March. She has involved consultations with expert psychologists and relationship counselors (Wall Street Journal).
- Bumble Inc. has issued new earnings guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025, expecting total revenue between $216 million and $224 million, with $176 million to $182 million anticipated from the Bumble app (company guidance).
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target (Fair Value): Has fallen significantly from $6.10 to approximately $4.89 per share, reflecting a more cautious outlook.
- Discount Rate: Has risen moderately from 10.21% to 11.58%, indicating increased perceived risk in Bumble’s future cash flows.
- Revenue Growth: Has declined further, with projections moving from -4.23% to -4.96%, signaling expectations of slower top-line performance.
- Net Profit Margin: Has decreased from 15.34% to 12.55%, suggesting a more conservative forecast for future profitability.
- Future P/E Ratio: Has increased from 7.67x to 8.60x, reflecting slightly higher valuation multiples based on updated earnings expectations.
Disclaimer
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