Update shared on 07 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 9.05%Analysts have lowered their price target for Bumble, with the consensus fair value declining from $6.71 to $6.10. They cited ongoing concerns around revenue growth, as well as uncertainty resulting from recent marketing cutbacks and user base initiatives.
Analyst Commentary
Recent analyst reports on Bumble present a mix of cautious and optimistic perspectives, reflecting both the execution risks and the potential for strategic improvements. The following summarizes the key bullish and bearish takeaways from recent street research and commentary.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts highlight meaningful progress on cost reduction initiatives, which could help support the company's profitability and margin improvement over time.
- Optimism persists around management's long-term vision, emphasizing a quality-first strategy aimed at strengthening the user base and improving trust and safety on the platform.
- There is some confidence that revenue and EBITDA could outperform consensus estimates in the short term, even amidst ongoing headwinds.
- Bearish analysts express concerns that recent marketing pullbacks and user base clean-ups significantly reduce near and medium-term revenue visibility. This creates uncertainty for investors.
- Worries remain that cuts in marketing spend may lead to further declines in user engagement in the near term, potentially weighing on topline performance.
- Recent headcount restructuring in R&D and softer payer trends have prompted reductions in quarterly estimates. This reinforces the theme of near-term headwinds to growth.
- Major firms note that visibility into a turnaround of the core app remains low until at least mid-2026. Efforts to improve overall user quality are expected to take significant time before delivering measurable results.
What's in the News
- Bumble is developing a new artificial intelligence-powered matchmaking app. This project was initiated by CEO Whitney Wolfe Herd since her return in March. The company has collaborated with psychologists and relationship counselors to build the AI and plans to launch a beta version to select users this fall (Wall Street Journal).
- Shares of Bumble dropped 4 cents to $6.29 in morning trading following the news of the AI project (Wall Street Journal).
- Bumble Inc. issued fourth quarter 2025 earnings guidance, forecasting total revenue between $216 million and $224 million, with Bumble App Revenue expected between $176 million and $182 million (Company statement).
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target: The fair value estimate has declined from $6.71 to $6.10, reflecting a modest decrease in analyst expectations.
- Discount Rate: The discount rate has risen slightly from 9.58% to 10.21%. This suggests an increase in perceived risk in the company's future cash flows.
- Revenue Growth: Projected revenue growth has become more negative, shifting from -3.92% to -4.23%.
- Net Profit Margin: Expected net profit margin has edged down from 15.55% to 15.34%.
- Future P/E: The forward price-to-earnings ratio has fallen from 8.26x to 7.67x, indicating lower anticipated earnings multiples.
Disclaimer
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