Mount Holland And Kwinana Projects Will Capitalize On Lithium Demand For EVs

Key Takeaways

• Strong growth potential in Specialty Plant Nutrition and lithium markets could positively impact revenue and earnings through strategic projects and increased demand.
  
• Flexibility in selling strategies and leveraging existing infrastructure can stabilize earnings and improve margins amidst market fluctuations and supply constraints.
  
• SQM faces revenue and margin pressures from lithium oversupply and price drops, production decisions, market competition, and legal risks from potential SEC violations.

Catalysts

Operates as a mining company worldwide.

• SQM sees strong growth potential in Specialty Plant Nutrition with volume increases of over 20% year-on-year. This is expected to positively impact revenue, even with stable midterm pricing.
  
• The ongoing development of the Mount Holland project and upcoming lithium hydroxide capacity from the Kwinana refinery positions SQM to capitalize on the growing lithium demand tied to the EV market, which should enhance earnings as production ramps up.
  
• SQM anticipates continued demand growth for iodine, forecasting sustained strong pricing due to potential supply constraints. This could improve net margins by leveraging existing infrastructure and market position.
  
• The strategic flexibility to sell either spodumene concentrate or lithium hydroxide, coupled with current tolling arrangements in China, provides SQM with a means to navigate market fluctuations, potentially stabilizing earnings despite pricing pressures.
  
• SQM's long-term strategy remains closely tied to the expanding clean energy sector, particularly in lithium. The company aims to align supply with demand increases projected over the next five years, driving future revenue growth.

Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile's revenue will grow by 13.3% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -6.7% today to 34.8% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $2.4 billion (and earnings per share of $8.62) by about December 2027, up from $-321.3 million today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as $912.9 million.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 8.0x on those 2027 earnings, up from -33.7x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Chemicals industry at 21.5x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 0.72% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.44%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• The ongoing oversupply in the lithium market, despite strong demand, has led to a significant price drop, which could impact SQM's revenue and profit margins.
  
• The company is not planning any curtailment in lithium production despite declining prices, which could exacerbate market oversupply, affecting revenue and earnings.
  
• There are risks associated with the commissioning of the Kwinana refinery, as commissioning is a high-risk period and could result in start-up issues similar to competitors, impacting future revenue and profitability.
  
• The iodine market is expected to see additional supply from competitors by 2025, which could affect SQM's market share and price stability, impacting future revenue.
  
• The SEC investigation regarding potential violations of the Foreign Corruption Practice Act could result in legal and financial repercussions, affecting SQM’s financial health and earnings.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $54.16 for Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $85.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $31.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2027, revenues will be $6.9 billion, earnings will come to $2.4 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 8.0x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.4%.
• Given the current share price of $37.94, the analyst's price target of $54.16 is 30.0% higher.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.