Update shared on 05 Dec 2025
Analysts have raised their price target on Aspen Aerogels by a modest amount, now embedding slightly lower discount rates and marginally softer future valuation multiples, as they emphasize the company’s improving risk profile and steady long term growth outlook.
What's in the News
- Aspen Aerogels lowered its full year 2025 revenue guidance to a range of $270 million to $280 million, down from the prior outlook of $297 million to $317 million (company guidance).
- The company now expects a wider net loss for 2025, guiding to a range of $342 million to $334 million compared with previous expectations of $317 million to $307 million, with basic loss per share projected at $4.15 to $4.05 versus $3.86 to $3.73 previously (company guidance).
- For the fourth quarter of 2025, Aspen Aerogels issued revenue guidance of $40 million to $50 million, framing near term expectations amid the revised annual outlook (company guidance).
- Management slightly revised its impairment guidance on property, plant and equipment for 2025, now expecting $287.6 million of impairments compared with the prior estimate of $287.567 million (company guidance).
Valuation Changes
- Discount Rate decreased modestly from 8.51% to approximately 8.36%, reflecting a slightly lower perceived risk profile in the valuation model.
- Revenue Growth remained essentially unchanged at roughly 5.12%, indicating no meaningful revision to long term top line expansion assumptions.
- Net Profit Margin was effectively flat at about 8.18%, suggesting stable expectations for long run profitability.
- Future P/E edged down slightly from about 21.89x to 21.80x, implying marginally softer valuation multiples applied to projected earnings.
- Fair Value was unchanged at 6.83, indicating no net effect on the intrinsic value estimate despite parameter tweaks.
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