Update shared on 03 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 3.55%Analysts have revised Ashland's fair value estimate downward from $64.70 to $62.40. This revision reflects updated expectations for slightly increased revenue growth but lower profit margins, which together contribute to a modestly higher projected discount rate and future P/E multiple.
What's in the News
- Ashland Inc. reported an equipment-related incident at its Calvert City, Kentucky facility, resulting in the temporary shutdown of a production unit for repairs. (Key Developments)
- Repairs at the affected unit will require installation of new equipment. Completion is targeted for fiscal First Quarter 2026 due to parts lead times. (Key Developments)
- The site remains partially operational, with ongoing production and finished goods inventory expected to cover customer deliveries and minimize potential disruption. (Key Developments)
- Operational impacts are anticipated, including repair costs and inefficiencies. The company projects a minimal Adjusted EBITDA effect in fiscal 2025 and an estimated $10 million carryover impact in fiscal 2026. (Key Developments)
Valuation Changes
- The Fair Value Estimate has been reduced from $64.70 to $62.40, reflecting a modest downward adjustment.
- The Discount Rate has increased slightly, moving from 8.53% to 8.56%.
- The Revenue Growth Projection has risen marginally from 1.92% to 2.01%.
- The Profit Margin Expectation has fallen from 17.54% to 14.92%, indicating a notable decrease in profitability outlook.
- The Future P/E Ratio has increased, moving from 9.77x to 11.06x.
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