Progressive’s consensus price target was revised downward to $278.16, as analysts balanced solid recent earnings and investment income against growing concerns over softer policy growth, intensifying competition, and margin normalization, which are expected to cap near-term upside.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts cite recent earnings outperformance, particularly in July and August, driving upward EPS revisions and improved investment income outlooks despite ongoing competitive pressures.
- Bearish analysts highlight slowing policy growth and underperformance in policies in force, attributing this to increased competition, lower earned rate increases, and market softening in personal auto.
- Multiple analysts expect near-term core loss ratio and underwriting margin pressure, with normalization of margins likely into or after 2025.
- Sector-wide, the industry is transitioning from a hard to a softer market, resulting in more intense competition, slower growth opportunities, and cautious positioning among brokers and insurers.
- There is consensus that, while valuation and profit margins remain attractive, revenue growth challenges and the normalization of previously high margins will limit further multiple expansion and upside for the stock in the near to medium term.
What's in the News
- Progressive completed a $8.35 million buyback, repurchasing 30,162 shares under the buyback announced on May 13, 2025.
- Progressive completed a $150.29 million buyback, repurchasing 660,806 shares under the buyback announced on May 14, 2024.
- Progressive partnered with DC and Warner Bros. to promote its in-app Accident Response safety feature via a campaign linked to the Superman film premiere.
- The company was dropped from the Russell 1000 Dynamic Index.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Progressive
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has fallen slightly from $287.83 to $278.16.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Progressive has fallen from 8.8% per annum to 8.2% per annum.
- The Future P/E for Progressive has fallen slightly from 21.47x to 20.86x.
Disclaimer
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