Commercial Auto Reserve Risks And Buybacks Will Shape Performance Ahead

The analyst price target for Selective Insurance Group has been revised downward to $81.50. This change is driven by analysts citing ongoing concerns about higher commercial auto reserve risks and slower premium growth following recent earnings updates.

Analysts have lowered their price target for Selective Insurance Group from approximately $83.33 to $81.50. They cite concerns about weaker revenue growth, softer profit margins, and increased reserve risks in the commercial auto segment.

Selective Insurance Group’s shares faced pressure from weaker earnings, a $45M reserve charge, and increased combined ratio guidance, prompting analysts to reassess valuation and maintain the consensus price target at $83.33 due to unresolved concerns about reserve adequacy. Analyst Commentary Weaker-than-expected earnings report pressured shares.

With net profit margin steady at 9.84% and consensus revenue growth forecasts unchanged at 6.5%, analysts have left their fair value estimate for Selective Insurance Group unchanged at $88.67. What's in the News From April 1, 2025 to June 30, 2025, Selective Insurance Group repurchased 0 shares, indicating no buyback activity in this tranche.

AnalystConsensusTarget has increased profit margin from 11.9% to 14.5% and decreased future PE multiple from 9.3x to 7.5x.

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

AnalystConsensusTarget has decreased revenue growth from 9.2% to 7.0%.