Update shared on 18 Jan 2026
Fair value Increased 33%Update on Valuation (18.10.26)
Over the next 5 years I calculate with (actual values from 18.01.26, price/shr at 533 USD):
Revenue Growth p.a.: 12% (Currently at 14,7%) – we saw the peak of revenue growth with nearly 15%, now even 12% is sporty, but with the „abo like“ revenues from spare parts and software licences, based on a still growing bases of installed systems, realisitc.
Profit Margin: 30% (currently at 28,6%) - because spare parts in general have more margin then system sales, and the sales out of spare parts is still growing.
Future PE: 50 (currently at 69) – the high PE’s are tipical for fast growers, but over time the PE will go down, I see for next 5 years 50, in 10 years it could come down to 40.
Interest rate: 6,77% (same as current)
Wich leads to an FV of 533 USD, means ISRG trades with 0,5% at fair value.
I calculate the internal rate of return (IRR) of an investement at current stock price on a period of 5 years. At current value I get 6,8% annual return on share price.
This is below my expectation of 10%.
But ISRG is always very expensive, but if you price further drops to 480 USD, you would reach 9% annual return.
This is below my expectation of 10%.
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