Update shared on 05 Nov 2025
Northern Oil and Gas's analyst price target has been lowered by $1 to $26. This reflects expectations among analysts for slightly weaker cash flow, driven by softer gas and NGL realizations.
Analyst Commentary
Recent analyst research reveals a mix of optimism and caution regarding Northern Oil and Gas. The latest price target adjustment highlights both opportunities and challenges facing the company in the near term.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts note expectations for "clean" operational updates in the coming quarter. This reflects effective execution despite a challenging operating environment.
- Ongoing cost discipline and operational efficiency support the company's relative stability when compared to some peers.
- The company's diversified asset base positions it well to manage commodity price volatility over the medium term.
Bearish Takeaways
- Bearish analysts point out that cash flow is likely to fall below consensus due to softer gas and NGL realizations.
- The modest reduction in price target reflects tempered growth expectations and headwinds from weaker realized prices in key segments.
- Uncertainty around near-term demand in the energy sector could pressure valuation multiples further.
What's in the News
- Updated guidance for 2025: Oil production is now expected at 75,000 to 76,500 Boe per day, up from prior guidance of 74,000 to 76,000 Boe per day (Key Developments).
- Total production for 2025 has been raised to 132,500 to 134,000 Boe per day, compared to previous guidance of 130,000 to 133,000 Boe per day (Key Developments).
- For the third quarter, total production is expected to be around 131,000 Boe per day, with oil production between 72,200 and 72,300 Boe per day, which the company expects to be the lowest quarter of the year (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Fair Value remains steady at $32.10, showing no change from previous estimates.
- The Discount Rate has decreased from 8.46% to 7.75%, indicating a marginally lower expected risk and return requirement.
- The Revenue Growth Estimate has fallen moderately from 1.45% to 1.24%.
- The Net Profit Margin has edged down from 14.79% to 14.55%.
- The Future P/E Ratio is virtually unchanged, moving from 11.40x to 11.43x.
Disclaimer
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