EWZ is a "Commodity-Backed Value" play. Floor supported by $100+ Brent and strong O&G cash flows from Petrobras. Banking ROEs add stability.
Baseline Target $44 for Dec 2026: Driven by robust commodity earnings and falling rates, partially offset by fiscal spending ahead of Oct '26 elections.
Upside Catalyst (> $50): Post-election government shift could collapse Brazil risk premium and expand multiples.
BRL expected stable ~R$5.25; USD earnings from exporters provide buffer.
Conclusion: Long earnings, cautious on multiple. Buy on commodity strength, re-evaluate post-Oct '26 elections.
Have other thoughts on iShares - iShares MSCI Brazil ETF?
Create your own narrative on this stock, and estimate its Fair Value using our Valuator tool.
Create NarrativeHow well do narratives help inform your perspective?
Disclaimer
The user ZThunderBRL has a position in ARCA:EWZ. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.