RJF: Share Repurchases And Deal Pipeline Will Drive Upside Into 2026

Analysts have modestly increased their price target for Raymond James Financial to $184.50. This slight upward revision is supported by recent positive quarterly results and ongoing strength across the company's business segments.

Analyst Commentary

Recent analyst reports reflect both optimism and increasing caution regarding Raymond James Financial's outlook, following a series of price target adjustments and model updates in light of quarterly results and evolving market conditions.

Bullish Takeaways

Several bullish analysts have raised price targets, citing improved quarterly results that exceeded expectations, particularly in transactional revenue and investment banking performance.
Analysts point to solid momentum across all business segments, with private client growth and strong capital management, such as share repurchases that keep capital ratios stable.
The company’s recruiting pipeline and capital markets pipeline are viewed as positive contributors heading into fiscal 2026, with management offering a favorable outlook.
Momentum in asset and wealth management is supported by higher markets, and organic growth within the Private Client Group continues to impress analysts.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts are cautious regarding the sustainability of current capital market activity, noting that robust capital raising and M&A announcements may not be maintained long term.
Some express concerns over growth rates trailing those of competitors, attributing this to a disciplined yet slower approach to advisor recruitment.
There are worries about elevated valuations and a lack of clear near-term catalysts, potentially limiting further upside in share price.
The prospect of lower interest rates and a more expensive entry point temper the near-term outlook, despite positive longer-term fundamentals.

What's in the News

The company completed the repurchase of 7,418,996 shares for $1.1 billion, representing 3.66% of shares, under the buyback announced on December 3, 2024. (Key Developments)
From July 1, 2025 to September 30, 2025, the company repurchased 2,107,000 shares, equal to 1.05% of shares, for $350 million. (Key Developments)
Raymond James Financial is actively seeking acquisition opportunities. The company is prioritizing targets that align with its culture and strategic fit and offer attractive returns for shareholders, according to CEO Paul Shoukry. (Key Developments)
First National Bank of Sparta selected Raymond James’ Financial Institutions Division to support the growth of Patton Wealth Management, which manages about $261 million in client assets. (Key Developments)

Valuation Changes

Consensus Analyst Price Target: Increased slightly from $184.42 to $184.50, reflecting marginally stronger forecasts.
Discount Rate: Rose marginally from 8.38% to 8.46%. This indicates a slight uptick in the risk assessment applied to future cash flows.
Revenue Growth: Increased from 9.24% to 9.37%. This implies a moderate improvement in expected top-line expansion.
Net Profit Margin: Fell slightly from 15.73% to 15.67%. This suggests a small decrease in projected profitability.
Future P/E: Increased from 14.78x to 14.81x, pointing to a modest rise in projected earnings multiples.

Successful recruitment and strategic focus on high-net-worth clients are expected to drive future revenue growth and strengthen long-term revenue streams.
Investment in AI capabilities and strong loan growth may enhance operational efficiencies, improve net margins, and positively impact future earnings.
Heightened market and interest rate uncertainties, competitive M&A landscapes, and tech investment risks could negatively affect revenue growth, profitability, and net margins.

Catalysts

About Raymond James Financial

A diversified financial services company, provides private client group, capital markets, asset management, banking, and other services to individuals, corporations, and municipalities in the United States, Canada, and Europe.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Raymond James' successful recruiting of financial advisors with high trailing production and assets from other firms has bolstered client assets under administration, which is expected to drive future revenue growth through increased client assets and new business inflows.
The establishment of a Chief AI Officer role highlights Raymond James' investment in artificial intelligence to enhance financial professional capabilities and client service, potentially improving net margins through increased operational efficiencies.
The bank segment's strong loan growth, particularly in securities-based lending, coupled with high credit quality, suggests potential increases in net interest income and margins, contributing positively to future earnings.
Consistent share repurchases, underpinned by strong capital and liquidity positions, indicate a commitment to enhancing shareholder value through EPS growth, alongside maintaining capacity for strategic acquisitions that align with cultural and financial goals.
The strategic focus on providing comprehensive private investment alternatives to high-net-worth clients through a robust platform is poised to attract more high-value clients, potentially increasing fee-based revenues and strengthening long-term revenue streams.

Raymond James Financial Earnings and Revenue Growth

Raymond James Financial Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Raymond James Financial's revenue will grow by 8.0% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 15.4% today to 15.7% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $2.7 billion (and earnings per share of $14.29) by about September 2028, up from $2.1 billion today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 15.1x on those 2028 earnings, down from 15.5x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Capital Markets industry at 26.7x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 2.28% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.39%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Raymond James Financial Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Heightened market uncertainty and volatility associated with tariff negotiations could negatively impact investment banking closings, leading to reduced revenue from this segment.
Market and interest rate uncertainty pose challenges to the fixed income market, which could unfavorably impact brokerage revenues and related earnings.
Increased client caution due to macroeconomic uncertainty may impact net new asset growth and thus lower overall revenue growth.
Competitive M&A landscapes may pressure Raymond James to stretch on valuations, affecting profitability and capital allocation efficiency.
The firm's commitment to significant investment in technology, such as AI, though potentially beneficial, presents risks around overspending without clear short-term financial returns, impacting net margins.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $173.273 for Raymond James Financial based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $17.3 billion, earnings will come to $2.7 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 15.1x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.4%.
Given the current share price of $165.59, the analyst price target of $173.27 is 4.4% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

How well do narratives help inform your perspective?

Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

RJF: Private Client Group Momentum And Share Buybacks Will Drive Returns