Update shared on 01 Dec 2025
Fair value Decreased 0.18%Analysts have slightly reduced their fair value estimate for Ares Management to $183.60 from $183.94. They cite improved revenue growth but marginally softer profit margin forecasts and continued strength in private credit activity following strong Q3 results.
Analyst Commentary
Following Ares Management's recent quarterly results and performance updates, analysts have weighed in with fresh perspectives on the company's valuation and prospects. The Street is divided, with both bullish and cautious observations emerging from the latest research notes.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts have raised price targets in response to better than expected Q3 results, highlighting strong execution and operational momentum.
- There is continued confidence in the company's ability to drive growth through its leading position in private credit markets, which is further supported by robust fundraising and investing activity.
- Recent stock performance, especially on earnings releases, underscores the market's credibility in Ares Management's ability to navigate industry trends and avoid broad-based credit issues.
- Expectations are for solid fund inflows and resilient fee-related earnings. This forms a foundation for upward valuation revisions from multiple analysts.
- Bearish analysts note mounting competition in the alternative asset management space, which could temper near-term growth and compress margins.
- Macro headwinds and market uncertainty are flagged as risks to capital deployment and future returns. These factors could potentially limit upside in the immediate term.
- The group's valuation reset and recent selloff are noted. Some analysts maintain equal or market-perform ratings amid concerns over credit market dynamics.
- Mixed return expectations and muted realizations are cited as reasons for maintaining a more cautious outlook until market conditions stabilize.
What's in the News
- Optimum Communications (ATUS) has filed an antitrust lawsuit against Ares Management and Apollo Global, alleging they formed an "illegal cartel" to block Optimum from the U.S. credit market and prevent it from buying back its own debt at market prices (The Wall Street Journal).
- Ares Management completed the repurchase of 400,000 shares, representing 0.39% for $10.45 million, as part of the buyback announced in February 2019. No shares were repurchased in the latest quarter (Company filing).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate has fallen slightly to $183.60, compared to $183.94 previously.
- Discount Rate has decreased marginally to 8.73% from the prior rate of 8.77%.
- Revenue Growth projection has risen slightly to 7.21%, up from 6.75%.
- Net Profit Margin forecast has decreased modestly to 31.25%, down from 31.68%.
- Future P/E ratio has edged lower to 30.09x, compared to 30.16x previously.
Disclaimer
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