Update shared on 28 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 0.14%XP’s analyst price target saw a modest increase to $23, up from previous levels, as analysts rolled forward valuation periods and maintained mostly stable earnings forecasts despite some pressure on revenue growth expectations and market activity.
Analyst Commentary
Recent Street research reports reflect a balanced perspective from analysts, highlighting both the opportunities and risks currently facing XP Inc. as it navigates the evolving market landscape.
Bullish Takeaways- Price targets have been modestly increased as analysts roll forward valuations into future periods. This signals confidence in medium-term prospects.
- Despite headwinds, most analysts are maintaining stable earnings forecasts. This emphasizes XP's ability to execute effectively and protect profitability.
- The attractiveness of the current valuation is noted, suggesting XP shares are viewed as compelling relative to peers and market conditions.
- Continued neutral-to-positive ratings indicate a baseline level of trust in XP's overall growth trajectory and management execution.
- Some caution remains around slower revenue growth expectations. This suggests that topline momentum may be challenged in the near term.
- Market activity is anticipated to be weighed down by persistently high interest rates, which could impact XP’s core business operations.
- Certain analysts have flagged the potential for disappointing quarterly results ahead, adding a short-term "downside watch" due to external economic pressures.
- Rolling forward valuation periods, rather than raising underlying earnings estimates, points to concerns about limited near-term fundamental improvement.
What's in the News
- XP Inc. announces a share repurchase program to buy back up to BRL 1,000 million of its Class A common stock using existing cash, with the program expiring on November 18, 2026 (Key Developments).
- The Board of Directors of XP Inc. authorizes a new buyback plan to be effective November 17, 2025 (Key Developments).
- Between July 1, 2025 and October 20, 2025, XP repurchased 10,163,293 shares, representing 1.93% of total shares, and is nearing completion of the BRL 1,000 million buyback announced in May 2025 (Key Developments).
- The Board declared a cash dividend of USD 0.18 per Class A common share, payable December 18, 2025, for a total of approximately BRL 500 million (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target: Now $23.17, showing a marginal decrease from the previous $23.20 level.
- Discount Rate: Increased slightly from 12.32% to 12.50%, reflecting a shift in perceived risk or cost of capital.
- Revenue Growth: Lowered modestly from 12.60% to 12.35%, signaling slightly reduced optimism about future sales expansion.
- Net Profit Margin: Rose marginally from 28.26% to 28.41%, indicating an improvement in profitability expectations.
- Future P/E: Decreased from 12.97x to 12.53x, which may suggest increased earnings expectations or a more attractive valuation level.
Disclaimer
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