TROW: Cost Controls And Capital Flow Trends Will Influence Forward Performance

The analyst price target for T. Rowe Price Group has been raised by several analysts to a range of $97 to $115. This change reflects cautious optimism in light of ongoing outflows, recent efficiency gains, and improved industry market conditions.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research updates offer a nuanced perspective on T. Rowe Price Group's outlook, with analysts balancing optimism around the company's potential against ongoing concerns in certain areas of its business. The following are the key bullish and bearish takeaways identified in the latest commentary:

• Bullish analysts are raising price targets, reflecting their increased confidence in T. Rowe Price Group’s ability to deliver incremental efficiency and sustain positive momentum in industry market conditions.
• Expense management has led to better-than-expected quarterly results, prompting upward revisions to earnings estimates and a recognition of successful operational execution.
• Strategic initiatives aimed at driving efficiencies and improving flows are viewed positively, as they have the potential to enhance overall profitability and competitiveness over time.
• Strong performance in global equity and bond markets has supported higher portfolio valuations, contributing to higher future earnings expectations for traditional asset managers like T. Rowe Price Group.

• Bearish analysts continue to highlight persistent outflows as a key area of caution, with indications that the firm’s efforts to stem declines have not yet fully materialized in improved flows.
• Some maintain a cautious outlook on valuation, noting that recent increases in targets are measured, given ongoing softness in monthly volumes.
• Concerns remain that industry organic growth, while improving, may not be enough to fully offset lagging inflows over the near term, especially against a backdrop of market volatility.
• Certain analysts assert that, despite efficiency gains, the firm’s current rating and price level reflect lingering execution risks and a need for greater visibility into sustainable growth drivers.

What's in the News

• T. Rowe Price launched four new active fixed income ETFs, expanding its lineup to 28 offerings and broadening municipal bond strategies for investors. (Key Developments)
• Goldman Sachs and T. Rowe Price announced a strategic collaboration to provide diversified public and private market solutions. The partnership includes co-branded target-date strategies and model portfolios for retirement and wealth investors. Goldman Sachs will invest up to $1 billion in T. Rowe Price's common stock. (Key Developments)
• From July 1 to September 30, 2025, T. Rowe Price repurchased over 1.45 million shares for $153.55 million as part of its ongoing share buyback program. This brings total repurchases to over 130 million shares since 2003. (Key Developments)

Valuation Changes

• The Fair Value Estimate has decreased slightly from $110.38 to $110.25 per share, indicating minimal overall change in intrinsic value assessment.
• The Discount Rate has risen marginally from 8.14% to 8.14%, suggesting a slightly higher risk premium or cost of capital applied in updated analysis.
• The Revenue Growth Projection has declined from 5.01% to 4.61%, reflecting more cautious expectations for future expansion.
• The Net Profit Margin Estimate has increased from 32.14% to 32.51%, signaling modest anticipated improvements in profitability.
• The Future Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio has edged lower from 10.72x to 10.66x, implying a small downward adjustment in forward valuation multiples.