Update shared on 29 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 25%Analysts have lowered their price target for Qfin Holdings from $47.10 to $35.55, citing slower revenue growth, more moderate profit margins, and increased competition that is limiting loan expansion and yields.
Analyst Commentary
Recent analyst reviews of Qfin Holdings reflect a mixed outlook, with some optimism about the company's long-term positioning and notable caution regarding near-term challenges.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts view Qfin's commitment to regulatory compliance, specifically in moderating loan yields, as a long-term positive for sustainable operations and industry trust.
- Qfin’s ability to adapt its loan offerings and focus on high-quality borrowers is seen as a proactive strategy that may support more stable future growth.
- Analysts note that maintaining profit margins, even during periods of slower growth, demonstrates operational efficiency and responsible financial management.
Bearish Takeaways
- Bearish analysts point out that slower loan growth and reduced annual percentage yields are likely to limit Qfin's near-term revenue expansion, which may impact valuation.
- Concerns have been raised about increased competition for prime borrowers, which could further compress growth opportunities and present execution challenges.
- The recent reporting period revealed significant earnings downside, leading analysts to question the company’s ability to consistently deliver above-market returns.
- Uncertainty around regulatory APR caps poses an ongoing risk, creating a persistent overhang on both profitability projections and investor sentiment.
What's in the News
- Qfin Holdings provided earnings guidance for the fourth quarter and full year of 2025, expecting net income between RMB 0.92 billion and RMB 1.12 billion for Q4, and between RMB 5.88 billion and RMB 6.08 billion for the full year (Key Developments).
- The company has scheduled a board meeting for November 18, 2025, to approve its unaudited financial results and announcement for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025 (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target has decreased from $47.10 to $35.55.
- Discount Rate has increased slightly from 9.22% to 9.35%.
- Revenue Growth projection has declined from 7.00% to 2.96%.
- Net Profit Margin estimate has decreased from 35.54% to 33.95%.
- Future P/E ratio has moved down from 5.65x to 4.80x.
Disclaimer
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