Kaspi.kz's analyst price target has been revised downward from $114 to $107, as analysts cite regulatory headwinds, persistent monetary policy challenges, and recent stock underperformance as contributing factors.
Analyst Commentary
Analysts have issued updated perspectives on Kaspi.kz following recent developments and share price movements. While some remain cautious, others see value at current levels given the company's relative valuation and potential for recovery.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts highlight that Kaspi.kz's shares are now trading at a significant discount compared to the company's historical average forward earnings multiple. This suggests potential upside if execution improves.
- The recent decline in share price, down 25% over the past year, may have already priced in several regulatory and operational challenges. This could create an attractive entry point for long-term investors.
- Despite headwinds from additional regulatory costs in both the Marketplace and banking segments, expectations remain that Kaspi.kz can sustain solid earnings over the medium term.
- A higher-for-longer monetary policy environment poses challenges. However, disciplined financial management and continued consumer engagement on the platform could help offset these difficulties.
Bearish Takeaways
- Bearish analysts point out the persistent regulatory headwinds, particularly increased compliance expenses, which may continue to weigh on profitability.
- There are concerns about the company's ability to maintain its historical growth rates amid changing macroeconomic conditions and tighter monetary policy.
- Recent stock underperformance raises questions about investor confidence and the timeline for a potential share price rebound.
- Analysts remain attentive to execution risk as the company navigates both evolving regulation and competition within the Marketplace and financial services segments.
What's in the News
- Alipay+, operated by Ant International as a global wallet gateway, and Kaspi.kz have enabled international cross-border QR payment acceptance in Kazakhstan. Users of 12 Alipay+-enabled payment apps can scan to pay via Kaspi QR, which has the largest nationwide merchant coverage. This includes shopping, F&B, attractions, convenience stores, medical services, and shops in smaller villages and towns. (Key Developments)
- Kaspi.kz has reiterated its earnings guidance for 2025, anticipating around 15% net income growth year over year, excluding Türkiye. (Key Developments)
Valuation Changes
- The Fair Value Estimate has decreased modestly from $112.84 to $111.40, reflecting a more cautious outlook.
- The Discount Rate has risen slightly, moving from 9.92% to 9.99%. This signals a marginal increase in perceived risk.
- Revenue Growth projections remain unchanged at 16.99%, indicating stable sales expectations.
- The Net Profit Margin is unchanged at 32.76%, suggesting consistent profitability assumptions.
- The future P/E ratio has declined marginally from 9.35x to 9.26x, indicating a slightly more conservative valuation.
Disclaimer
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