DECK: Brand Strength And Buybacks Will Support Ongoing Upside Potential

Analysts slightly lifted their price target on Deckers Outdoor by about $1 to roughly $122, citing a still-attractive valuation, improving confidence in the growth trajectory of Hoka and resilient demand for Ugg, even as some firms trim targets on signs of moderating growth and cautious second half guidance.

Analyst Commentary

Street research on Deckers Outdoor reflects a divided but generally constructive view, with bullish analysts pointing to brand strength and valuation support, while more cautious voices highlight slowing growth and tougher comparisons in the back half of the year.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts highlight that the current multiple remains attractive relative to long term growth in Hoka and resilient Ugg demand, supporting Buy and Outperform ratings even as price targets are trimmed at the margin.
• Recent upgrade activity cites increased confidence in the multiyear growth pathway for Hoka, including management guidance that supports estimates out to fiscal 2027 and beyond.
• Several firms point to favorable supply and demand dynamics for Ugg and healthy wholesale and international trends, which they see as offsetting near term softness in certain channels.
• Despite acknowledging that consensus estimates may be too high, some bullish analysts argue that the stock has become difficult to ignore on valuation grounds, given its pullback and still solid brand equity.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts emphasize softer implied second half guidance, including expectations for Ugg revenue to decline and Hoka growth to slow to low teens, which they see as inconsistent with prior high growth narratives.
• Concerns are building around lagging direct to consumer performance and evidence that both Hoka and Ugg are exiting peak growth phases, raising questions about margin durability and long term earnings power.
• Some research argues that Hoka is approaching saturation in the core U.S. running segment and is increasingly reliant on lower quality growth vectors, while Ugg is seen as coming off a multi year trend cycle.
• Cautious analysts note that, despite the stock already correcting significantly year to date, expectations and earnings forecasts may still be too optimistic, leaving limited room for execution missteps.

What's in the News

• Urban Outfitters is launching an immersive UGG installation across select U.S. stores as part of its On Rotation concept, expanding UGG product visibility and targeting Gen Z shoppers with holiday focused experiential retail (Key Developments).
• Deckers Outdoor issued fiscal 2026 guidance, projecting approximately $5.35 billion in net sales and diluted EPS between $6.30 and $6.39 (Key Developments).
• From July 1 to October 9, 2025, Deckers repurchased about 2.9 million shares for $317 million, completing a long running buyback totaling roughly 47.9 million shares and $2.67 billion, which has materially reduced share count and supported EPS (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value Estimate is unchanged at approximately $112 per share, indicating no revision to the intrinsic value assessment.
• The Discount Rate has risen slightly from about 8.61 percent to approximately 8.63 percent, reflecting a modest increase in the required return.
• Revenue Growth is effectively unchanged at around 6.7 percent annually, signaling stable long term top line expectations.
• The Net Profit Margin is effectively unchanged at roughly 16.8 percent, implying no material shift in projected profitability.
• The Future P/E has risen slightly from about 17.29x to approximately 17.30x, suggesting a marginally higher multiple applied to forward earnings.