Update shared on 06 Dec 2025
Analysts have nudged their blended price target on Hasbro modestly higher, reflecting increased conviction after a solid Q3 EPS beat and upbeat channel checks around Magic's 2025 comp potential and the company's emerging video game pipeline.
Analyst Commentary
Bullish analysts highlight that the recent Q3 EPS beat, achieved despite below the line headwinds, underscores improving execution under Hasbro's strategic pivot and supports a gradual rerating of the shares.
Following a series of investor meetings and industry events, these analysts point to growing confidence in the durability of Magic: The Gathering demand, alongside a strengthening video game roadmap, as key drivers of medium term growth and valuation upside.
Price targets have been nudged higher, reflecting the view that consensus still underestimates the earnings power of the gaming and digital franchises as mix shifts away from lower margin, more cyclical toy categories.
At the same time, investors are being reminded that successful delivery on the multiyear content and game release slate will be critical to sustaining above market growth expectations embedded in the new targets.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts see the solid Q3 EPS beat as evidence that cost discipline and portfolio reshaping are beginning to translate into more resilient earnings, supporting higher target prices.
- Stronger conviction in Magic's ability to post a very strong 2025 comp, backed by a well sequenced 2026 set schedule, is viewed as a key pillar for multi year revenue growth and margin expansion.
- The emerging video game pipeline is considered an underappreciated asset that can diversify revenue, enhance monetization per user, and justify a higher growth multiple over time.
- Management's clearer strategic focus on high return, brand driven franchises is seen as reducing execution risk and improving the visibility of free cash flow needed for buybacks and debt reduction.
Bearish Takeaways
- Bearish analysts remain cautious that expectations for Magic's 2025 comp performance may now be elevated, leaving less room for error if consumer spending or competitive dynamics soften.
- There is concern that the video game pipeline, while promising, carries meaningful execution and timing risk, which could lead to volatility in results and limit near term multiple expansion.
- Some investors worry that below the line headwinds observed in Q3 could persist or reappear, diluting headline EPS progress and constraining the pace of balance sheet improvement.
- Reliance on a concentrated set of key franchises could increase sensitivity to franchise specific missteps or delays, which would weigh on both growth expectations and valuation resilience.
What's in the News
- Hasbro completed its long running share repurchase program, buying back over 30 million shares for approximately $1.76 billion since its 2011 authorization, but executed no repurchases in the most recent tranche window (company filing).
- Duluth Trading Co. and Hasbro launched a limited time Duluth x Hasbro holiday collection that reimagines classic toys like Potato Head, Lincoln Logs, Tonka and Tinkertoy across Duluth’s Buck Naked underwear, socks and curated toy assortments (company announcement).
- Netflix named Hasbro a global co master toy licensee for the film KPop Demon Hunters, with a 2026 lineup of toys, games and role play products planned to tap into the franchise’s fan base (company announcement).
- Kayou and Hasbro are previewing the My Little Pony Card Game, Friendships Begin at New York Comic Con ahead of a 2026 U.S. retail launch, expanding Hasbro further into trading card games beyond Magic: The Gathering (company announcement).
- Gameberry Labs partnered with Hasbro to roll out SORRY! World, the first stand alone mobile app for the classic SORRY! board game, adding fast paced online play, leagues and progression systems to the brand (company announcement).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value: Unchanged at $91.54 per share, indicating no revision to the intrinsic value estimate.
- Discount Rate: Increased slightly from 7.61 percent to 7.68 percent, implying a modestly higher required return on equity.
- Revenue Growth: Essentially unchanged, edging down marginally from 5.25 percent to 5.25 percent on an annualized basis.
- Net Profit Margin: Ticked up slightly from 16.36 percent to 16.36 percent, reflecting a minimal improvement in long term profitability assumptions.
- Future P/E: Increased slightly from 19.49x to 19.53x, signaling a modestly higher multiple applied to forward earnings.
Disclaimer
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