JSAT Contract And Satellite Expansion Will Secure Global Momentum

Key Takeaways

• Strategic partnerships and focus on high-value solutions are poised to expand revenue streams and enhance net margins.
  
• Significant contract wins and expansion in satellite services drive cash flow positivity, revenue growth, and financial stability.
  
• Targeting larger customers may exclude smaller client revenue, while capital expenditures and geopolitical factors could pressure financials and affect revenue predictability.

Catalysts

Engages in the design, construction, and launch constellations of satellites with the intent of providing high cadence geospatial data delivered to customers through an online platform worldwide.

• The strategic move to focus on selling solutions, rather than just data, reflects a shift towards higher-value, more predictable revenue streams, indicating potential growth in revenue and net margins.
  
• The significant $230 million contract with JSAT, particularly structured for front-loaded cash payments, is expected to drive meaningful cash flow accretion and support Planet Labs’ path to free cash flow positivity, impacting earnings positively.
  
• The expansion into the satellite services market and launching nearly 100 satellites within two years suggests a substantial increase in global capacity and revisit rates, potentially doubling revenue growth rate in FY '27, positively impacting revenue and margins.
  
• Collaborations with AI companies like Anthropic to enhance model accuracy using Planet Labs' data could lead to accelerated development and delivery of AI-enabled solutions, thus expanding the addressable market and boosting future revenue and net margins.
  
• A strategic focus on larger customer accounts, with increasing average contract value and enhanced customer retention, could lead to improved net dollar retention rates and overall financial performance, impacting revenue stability and increased earnings.

Planet Labs PBC Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Planet Labs PBC's revenue will grow by 17.9% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts are not forecasting that Planet Labs PBC will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate Planet Labs PBC's profit margin will increase from -50.4% to the average US Professional Services industry of 6.3% in 3 years.
• If Planet Labs PBC's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach $25.1 million (and earnings per share of $0.07) by about April 2028, up from $-123.2 million today.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 94.6x on those 2028 earnings, up from -7.8x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Professional Services industry at 20.8x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 3.95% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.41%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Planet Labs PBC Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• The shift to targeting larger customers may exclude potential revenue from smaller clients not included in direct sales, thus impacting overall revenue and customer acquisition.
  
• Significant capital expenditures and investment in new satellite fleets could strain financials, leading to short-term pressure on cash flow and earnings.
  
• Potential geopolitical instabilities and economic uncertainties referenced in the guidance could delay revenue recognition and contribute to forecast volatility, impacting revenue predictability.
  
• Dependency on successful execution and scaling of joint ventures, such as with JSAT, and the need for future similar strategic partnerships might introduce execution risk, affecting future revenue streams.
  
• The expansion of AI capabilities is still experimental and may not yield immediate monetizable outcomes, potentially delaying expected revenue contributions from AI initiatives.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $5.8 for Planet Labs PBC based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $8.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $3.5.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $400.7 million, earnings will come to $25.1 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 94.6x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.4%.
• Given the current share price of $3.19, the analyst price target of $5.8 is 45.0% higher.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.