Update shared on 30 Nov 2025
Analysts have lowered their price targets for Booz Allen Hamilton Holding significantly, with new estimates clustered around $90 to $106 per share, citing tough recent earnings, reduced guidance, and persistent uncertainty in public sector demand.
Analyst Commentary
Recent commentary from Wall Street highlights a shift in sentiment toward Booz Allen Hamilton Holding. Many now express greater caution due to ongoing industry headwinds and company-specific challenges. Analysts have tempered their forecasts and ratings following mixed quarterly earnings and revised company guidance.
Bullish Takeaways- Some analysts continue to cite Booz Allen's strong positioning within the national security portfolio. This segment is viewed as having persistent demand, which helps mitigate broader market challenges.
- Bullish analysts highlight that, while the environment is volatile, it does not appear to be deteriorating further. This offers the potential for stabilization over the medium term.
- There is recognition that the current headwinds facing the company are not expected to be permanent. A normalization of conditions could support a resumption of growth.
- Several bearish analysts are concerned by repeated guidance reductions and persistently weak earnings. These factors have led to sharply lower price targets and more cautious stock ratings.
- Civil sector exposure remains a significant overhang on prospects for growth. Continued volatility and underperformance in this area are overshadowing strengths in defense and intelligence.
- Uncertainty around future revenue and margin recovery is being driven by anticipated pressure on pricing and a lack of conviction in short-term growth, particularly in the federal civilian business.
- The divergence in budget trends between defense/intel and federal civilian markets is seen as a risk for further valuation dispersion across the sector. This leaves Booz Allen vulnerable relative to peers not facing a similar breadth of headwinds.
What's in the News
- Booz Allen Hamilton was awarded a $99 million contract by the U.S. Navy's Military Sealift Command to deploy and sustain advanced wireless networks for civil service mariners, leveraging Low Earth Orbit satellites and 5G technologies. (Key Developments)
- The company collaborated with NVIDIA and industry leaders to develop America’s first AI-native wireless stack for 6G, contributing to innovations in multimodal sensing and real-time spectrum management. (Key Developments)
- Booz Allen completed a share repurchase tranche, buying back 1,936,527 shares for $207.62 million and increased its share buyback authorization by $500 million to a total of $4.085 billion. (Key Developments)
- Booz Allen and SEEQC expanded their partnership to accelerate quantum computing solutions, aiming to integrate Booz Allen’s quantum software into SEEQC’s technology stack and advance quantum information science. (Key Developments)
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate: Remains unchanged at $101.50 per share.
- Discount Rate: Increased slightly from 7.90% to 7.92%.
- Revenue Growth Projection: Holds steady at 1.40%.
- Net Profit Margin: Remains essentially unchanged at approximately 5.80%.
- Future P/E Ratio: Increased modestly from 18.55x to 19.10x.
Disclaimer
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