Update shared on 28 Nov 2025
Casella Waste Systems' analyst price target rose from $88 to $95 per share as analysts point to easing integration headwinds and a more constructive multi-year outlook, despite ongoing execution risks.
Analyst Commentary
Recent Street research highlights a shift in sentiment toward Casella Waste Systems, with analysts weighing both the opportunities and challenges facing the company. The stock has seen upward price target revisions as integration headwinds begin to subside and longer-term growth prospects come into clearer focus. However, concerns around execution and sector dynamics remain.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts point to easing integration challenges, suggesting operational improvements are beginning to materialize and help drive value.
- The company is seen as having a substantial multi-year runway for inorganic growth, leveraging its status as the smallest public solid waste operator to capture market share through acquisitions.
- Constructive longer-term outlooks, particularly for 2026 and beyond, are grounded in expectations of industry-leading free cash flow compounding.
- The sector’s inherent stability and Casella’s strong positioning suggest the stock can compound value over time, even in more volatile market cycles.
Bearish Takeaways
- Despite recent positive data points, analysts remain cautious about ongoing execution risk as the company continues its geographic expansion.
- The lower beta nature of the solid waste sector may result in underperformance should broader equity markets become more risk seeking.
- Some believe the market may underestimate the short-term "growing pains" from Casella’s aggressive expansion efforts, which could pressure near-term valuation multiples.
What's in the News
- Casella Waste Systems updated its earnings guidance for fiscal year 2025 and now estimates revenues between $1.830 billion and $1.840 billion, raising the lower end of its guidance. (Key Developments)
- The company reaffirmed its fiscal year 2025 net income outlook and anticipates results in the range of $8 million to $18 million. (Key Developments)
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value: Remains unchanged at $112.78 per share.
- Discount Rate: Decreased slightly from 7.31% to 7.27%.
- Revenue Growth: No change and is holding steady at approximately 9.27%.
- Net Profit Margin: Stable and remains at 4.45%.
- Future P/E: Declined modestly from 85.6x to 84.2x.
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.