Update shared on 31 Oct 2025
Fair value Decreased 1.44%Analysts have modestly lowered their fair value estimate for Casella Waste Systems from $116.68 to $115.00 per share. This adjustment reflects mixed sector sentiment and tempered expectations for the company's growth trajectory, even as industry optimism continues.
Analyst Commentary
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts are encouraged by the long-term growth potential in the solid waste sector, highlighting that companies in this space are expected to compound returns over time.
- Casella Waste is seen as having a significant opportunity to pursue inorganic growth, given its status as the smallest public player in the industry and the ongoing industry consolidation trend.
- Analysts note that the company is positioned for industry-leading free cash flow compounding over the next several years, and this supports a positive outlook for future valuation.
- The sector’s stable and resilient demand is expected to benefit Casella. This could help support steady performance even during broader economic shifts.
- Bearish analysts caution that the sector’s low-beta nature may lead to underperformance compared to the broader market during periods of increased risk appetite.
- The company's ongoing geographic expansion poses potential "growing pains," and this could weigh on near-term execution and profitability.
- Some analysts believe that expectations for Casella’s growth may be too optimistic at current valuation levels, with a need to navigate potential integration and operational challenges.
- There are concerns that the Street might underestimate the complexities and hurdles involved in scaling operations into new markets.
What's in the News
- John W. Casella, Chairman and CEO, will transition to Executive Chairman effective January 1, 2026 (Key Developments).
- Edmond R. Coletta, current President, has been appointed as the next CEO, effective January 1, 2026 (Key Developments).
- The company’s Board will expand to 10 members. Mr. Coletta has been elected as a Class II director through the 2026 annual meeting (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate: Lowered modestly from $116.68 to $115.00 per share, reflecting a slightly more cautious outlook.
- Discount Rate: Decreased slightly from 7.29% to 7.27%. This indicates only a minor change in perceived risk.
- Revenue Growth: Risen slightly from 9.96% to 10.11%. This suggests marginally improved future revenue expectations.
- Net Profit Margin: Decreased marginally from 3.77% to 3.76%. This indicates a slightly more conservative profitability outlook.
- Future P/E: Fallen modestly from 106.8x to 105.3x. This points to a very small reduction in expected future earnings multiples.
Disclaimer
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