Rising Defense Spending Will Boost US Aerospace And Industrial Sectors

Key Takeaways

• Strong defense and industrial demand, alongside infrastructure investment and tax incentives, are driving robust revenue growth and expanding margins across key segments.
  
• Acquisition integration, capacity expansions, and advanced product offerings are boosting operational efficiencies, pricing power, and long-term contract visibility.
  
• Heavy dependence on volatile end markets, challenging supply chains, and customer concentration expose the company to significant operational, revenue, and margin risks.

Catalysts

Manufactures and markets engineered precision bearings, components, and systems in the United States and internationally.

• Robust multi-year increases in defense spending-driven by mounting global geopolitical tensions and fleet modernizations-are fueling unprecedented demand for RBC's aerospace components, underpinning a record $1B+ backlog and positioning the company for durable top-line growth and long-term contract visibility that should drive sustained revenue and orderbook expansion.
  
• Significant infrastructure investment in the U.S. is accelerating small and mid-sized industrial customer demand for bearings and motion control components, with tax incentives from recent legislation expected to further stimulate growth in the industrial segment, supporting upward trends in both revenues and industrial margins.
  
• RBC's successful acquisition and integration strategy, exemplified by the recent VACCO purchase, is expected to produce meaningful revenue synergies (especially in defense and space) and operational efficiencies through expanded scale-setting the stage for margin expansion and higher EBITDA as integration matures over the next 18–24 months.
  
• Ongoing capacity expansions and selective CapEx in key growth businesses (notably aerospace and defense) are aligned with rising OEM build rates and new long-term contracts, positioning the company to capture increased content per aircraft/engine and strengthen gross margins and earnings as OEM production ramps up.
  
• Persistent industry demand for technically advanced, engineered bearings and motion control solutions-driven by trends toward energy efficiency, digitalization (predictive maintenance), and electrification-are increasing RBC's pricing power and product mix quality, which should result in both higher average selling prices and improved net margins.

RBC Bearings Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming RBC Bearings's revenue will grow by 11.1% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 14.8% today to 19.5% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $445.8 million (and earnings per share of $12.63) by about September 2028, up from $246.6 million today.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 41.1x on those 2028 earnings, down from 47.8x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Machinery industry at 24.7x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.62% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.11%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

RBC Bearings Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Global supply chain constraints, particularly regarding specialty and exotic alloys needed for aerospace and defense applications, create risk of material shortages or long lead-times; this could disrupt production schedules and impair RBC's ability to fulfill long-term contract commitments, directly impacting revenue growth.
  
• Industrial segment growth is uneven and highly sector-dependent, with key end markets like oil & gas and large OEMs remaining weak; prolonged softness or structural changes in these sectors could lead to lower-than-expected sales and put downward pressure on both revenue and net earnings.
  
• Persistent exposure to acquisition integration risk is elevated by the recent VACCO transaction; if anticipated synergies are not realized on schedule or margin improvement targets are missed, this could drive margin compression and increase the risk of earnings disappointment and possible impairment charges.
  
• The push to expand capacity, including rapid investment in manufacturing (e.g., airfreighting equipment, potential CapEx to keep pace with demand), could overextend resources or lead to operational inefficiencies if demand moderates, pressuring free cash flow and net margins.
  
• Ongoing customer concentration in aerospace and defense, where a few large OEMs (e.g., Boeing, Airbus, GE, Pratt) drive much of RBC's backlog, poses a long-term risk; any shift in sourcing strategy, production delays, or destocking by these customers could materially reduce revenue and operating leverage.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $452.667 for RBC Bearings based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $500.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $425.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $2.3 billion, earnings will come to $445.8 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 41.1x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.1%.
• Given the current share price of $374.88, the analyst price target of $452.67 is 17.2% higher.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.