Ferguson Enterprises' analyst price target has been raised by approximately $2 to $252. Analysts cite strong Q4 results, share gains across key markets, and the company's resilience despite ongoing headwinds in residential segments.
Analyst Commentary
Recent quarters have seen several bullish adjustments to Ferguson Enterprises’ price target by leading research firms, reflecting ongoing confidence in the company’s business model and market positioning. Analysts continue to cite a variety of operational and macro factors in their outlook for the stock.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts highlight strong organic revenue growth, with particular outperformance in non-residential markets and a resilient response to inflationary trends.
- Share gains have been noted across both residential and non-residential end-markets, indicating effective execution and a unique ability to capture large and complex projects.
- Recent results exceeded consensus estimates, particularly in revenue and operating profit. This demonstrates the company’s capacity to sustain above-market growth even amidst challenging environments.
- Ongoing solid demand for non-residential waterworks, commercial, and civil infrastructure projects is seen as supporting continued momentum.
- Bearish analysts point to ongoing weakness in new residential construction and repair, maintenance, and improvement demand. This may continue as a near-term headwind for the business.
- The HVAC segment remains a potential area of near-term volatility, with some skepticism around the stability of results in that category.
- Revised forecasts assume more conservative margin growth in future periods. This reflects caution on valuation as industry recovery timelines remain uncertain.
- Some price target upward revisions are based on expectations of an eventual market recovery out to 2026 or beyond, meaning near-term upside may be limited by macroeconomic trends.
What's in the News
- The Board amended and restated the company bylaws to align with a new fiscal year ending on December 31 each year (Key Developments).
- Ferguson Enterprises is changing its fiscal year-end from July 31 to December 31. The company will implement a five-month transition period in 2025, and begin reporting on a calendar year basis in 2026 (Key Developments).
- Updated earnings guidance for calendar year 2025 projects net sales with mid-single digit growth (Key Developments).
- Between May 1 and July 31, 2025, Ferguson repurchased 908,234 shares for $183.54 million. This completed a total buyback of over 26.7 million shares, amounting to 12.74% of shares, under the ongoing buyback program (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen slightly to $252.16 from $249.89, reflecting a modest increase in projected fair value.
- Discount Rate has edged up marginally from 8.13% to 8.16%, signaling a minor adjustment in perceived risk or required return.
- Revenue Growth forecasts have decreased from 5.41% to 4.80%, indicating a more conservative outlook for future sales expansion.
- Net Profit Margin estimates have increased to 6.77% from 6.45%, suggesting improved expectations for profitability.
- Future P/E ratio projections have declined from 25.69x to 24.63x, pointing to a slightly less expensive valuation of forward earnings.
Disclaimer
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