Update shared on 28 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 0.34%Carrier Global’s analyst price target has been revised slightly lower, decreasing from $72.94 to $72.69. Analysts cite tempered near-term expectations for U.S. HVAC sales, while highlighting ongoing strength in commercial and aftermarket segments that support long-term prospects.
Analyst Commentary
Analyst opinions on Carrier Global have grown more nuanced, with cautious short-term expectations balanced by confidence in the company's longer-term growth trajectory. Price target revisions show both supportive and skeptical perspectives on future performance.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts point out that commercial HVAC and aftermarket growth remain robust, providing a steady revenue base even as some end markets soften.
- Management's expectations of aggressive channel restocking through the fourth quarter suggest that field inventories will be at multi-year lows by year end. This could position Carrier for a strong recovery when demand improves.
- Analysts see the sustained performance in commercial and aftermarket segments as an important factor supporting long-term valuation and growth into 2026 and beyond.
- Bearish analysts note that U.S. residential HVAC sales are currently trending below prior expectations, prompting more conservative near-term outlooks.
- Recent company commentary points to headwinds in adjusted EPS projections, with estimates for next year's earnings per share now expected to be below previous guidance.
- Analysts caution that management may officially lower forward guidance alongside quarterly results, increasing uncertainty over near-term execution.
- The revised price targets reflect these concerns, with some analysts viewing the stock's valuation as ahead of confirmed fundamentals, particularly if channel and cost headwinds persist.
What's in the News
- Carrier Global updated its 2025 earnings guidance, lowering expected sales to $22.0 billion from a prior estimate of $23.0 billion (Key Developments).
- The company completed a buyback tranche, repurchasing 7,502,000 shares for $483.28 million between July and October 2025. This brings the total number of shares repurchased under the ongoing buyback program to 106,388,374 (Key Developments).
- On October 28, 2025, Carrier announced a $5 billion increase in its equity buyback authorization. The total buyback authorization is now $12.1 billion (Key Developments).
- Carrier is set to showcase its QuantumLeap thermal management solutions and debut liquid cooling technology for data centers at Data Centre World Asia, in response to record growth in AI-driven data center investments across Asia (Key Developments).
- Carrier began field trials of battery-enabled HVAC systems in partnership with utilities and EPRI. These trials are evaluating their potential to support grid flexibility and reduce peak electricity demand (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target has declined marginally, moving from $72.94 to $72.69 per share.
- Discount Rate has edged lower, dropping from 9.01% to approximately 9.00%.
- Revenue Growth projections remain unchanged at 4.20%.
- Net Profit Margin is slightly higher, increasing from 11.58% to 11.68%.
- Future P/E ratio has risen to 24.81x from 22.77x. This indicates higher anticipated valuation multiples.
Disclaimer
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