Update shared on 29 Nov 2025
Analysts have increased their price target on VSE Corp. by $24 to $201, citing strong quarterly results, raised forward guidance, and expectations for enhanced earnings and margin accretion from recent acquisitions.
Analyst Commentary
Recent research coverage of VSE Corp. reflects a largely optimistic outlook regarding the company's momentum in the aerospace aftermarket sector. Multiple analysts have issued or raised their Buy ratings and price targets, following a streak of strong earnings and strategic acquisitions.
Bullish Takeaways- Analysts highlight robust organic growth, with VSE achieving sustained double-digit increases in EBITDA and revenue as a pure-play commercial aftermarket company.
- Recent acquisitions, such as Aero 3 and Kellstrom, are expected to be accretive to both EPS and EBITDA margins. This is seen as supporting further margin expansion and accelerated earnings growth through 2026.
- Guidance for 2025 revenue and margins has been raised, which signals management's confidence in ongoing outperformance compared to the broader market.
- VSE's transformation into a focused aviation aftermarket parts distributor and services provider is viewed as enhancing the company's competitive positioning, M&A flexibility, and potential for above-market share gains.
- Some analysts caution that continued margin expansion and successful integration of acquisitions will be key for sustaining the current valuation premium.
- There are concerns that outsized growth expectations could be tempered by potential execution risks tied to scaling recent deals and meeting raised forward guidance.
- While M&A activity has fueled growth, the company must manage the risks that come with integrating multiple platforms while maintaining operational discipline.
What's in the News
- VSE Corporation completed a follow-on equity offering, raising nearly $400 million through the sale of over 2.3 million shares of common stock at $170 per share (Key Developments).
- The company has raised its 2025 revenue growth guidance to a range of 38% to 40%, up from prior expectations of 35% to 40% (Key Developments).
- Plans to pursue further acquisitions and investments have been reiterated. Management emphasized ongoing strength in both the M&A and organic growth pipelines for 2026 (Key Developments).
- VSE was recently added to the S&P Aerospace & Defense Select Industry Index. This reflects its increased prominence within the sector (Key Developments).
- A lock-up period for over 20 million shares and certain restricted stock units will run from late October to mid-December 2025. This restricts sales by directors and executive officers during that time (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value: Remains steady at approximately $207.07, reflecting minimal change from prior calculations.
- Discount Rate: Decreased slightly from 7.74% to 7.69%, indicating a modest reduction in risk assumptions.
- Revenue Growth: Holds steady at 7.55%, showing no meaningful adjustment in forward projections.
- Net Profit Margin: Remains virtually unchanged, staying at approximately 6.99%.
- Future P/E: Declined from 46.92x to 44.62x. This suggests a moderate decrease in the expected earnings multiple.
Disclaimer
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