Shift To Owner Direct Revenue Will Improve Business Stability

Key Takeaways

• The shift to Owner Direct revenue and strategic acquisitions aim to ensure sustainable, high-margin growth and optimize cost efficiencies, reducing reliance on volatile projects.
  
• Expansion into healthcare and manufacturing, plus investment in specialized staff, intends to increase recurring revenue and drive long-term earnings and margin growth.
  
• Transition risks and strategic acquisition challenges may affect revenue stability and earnings, while high expenses and sector dynamics could pressure growth and investor confidence.

Catalysts

Operates as a building systems solution company in the United States.

• The strategic shift towards Owner Direct (ODR) revenue, which accounts for a growing percentage of total revenue and gross profit, positions Limbach for sustainable, high-margin growth by reducing reliance on volatile General Contractor (GCR) projects. This catalyst is expected to impact revenue and net margins positively.
  
• Expanding into healthcare and industrial manufacturing as primary verticals with high demand and recurring revenue potential offers significant growth opportunities, particularly with the recognized need for infrastructure investments in the U.S. healthcare market. This is likely to drive revenue growth.
  
• Executing a disciplined acquisition strategy, including recent acquisitions contributing significantly to adjusted EBITDA, indicates potential for scaling the business efficiently, optimizing SG&A, and enhancing earnings through increased revenues and improved cost efficiencies.
  
• Continued investment in specialized ODR staff and account management aims to deepen customer relationships and increase wallet share, thereby increasing recurring revenue streams and improving earnings stability and margin profiles.
  
• Plans to reach a strategic mix of 80% ODR to 20% GCR revenue by 2025 are expected to normalize margins comparable to OEMs, significantly enhancing gross margins and contributing to revenue and earnings growth over the long term.

Limbach Holdings Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Limbach Holdings's revenue will grow by 11.0% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 6.0% today to 7.7% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $55.0 million (and earnings per share of $4.5) by about March 2028, up from $30.9 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 26.5x on those 2028 earnings, down from 30.1x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Construction industry at 25.6x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 1.52% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.35%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Limbach Holdings Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Transition risks as the company shifts its revenue mix from GCR to ODR could impact revenue stability and customer relationships, particularly if the transition takes longer or encounters unforeseen challenges.
  
• The reliance on strategic acquisitions for growth involves integration and cultural challenges that may affect earnings if not successfully managed.
  
• High SG&A expenses, particularly increasing payroll and incentive-related expenses, could pressure net margins if revenue growth does not keep pace.
  
• Seasonal fluctuations, with Q1 often being the weakest quarter, could lead to variance in earnings, impacting investor confidence in the stability of revenue growth projections.
  
• The competitive and dynamic nature of the healthcare and industrial manufacturing sectors could impact revenue growth, especially if the company fails to secure long-term contracts or sufficient repeat business.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $107.0 for Limbach Holdings based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $125.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $100.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $709.7 million, earnings will come to $55.0 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 26.5x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.4%.
• Given the current share price of $81.95, the analyst price target of $107.0 is 23.4% higher.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.