Analysts have made a modest upward adjustment to Ferrari's fair value estimate to about $428 per share. This reflects recent price target changes across the Street and updated assumptions around revenue growth, margins and future P/E expectations.
Analyst Commentary
Recent research shows a mixed but active view on Ferrari, with several firms updating price targets and ratings around the latest fiscal 2025 results and initial 2026 guidance. The modest uplift in fair value to about US$428 per share sits within a range of higher and lower targets as analysts recalibrate their models.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts see the updated post fiscal 2025 models as supportive of a premium valuation, with price targets such as the US$447 level from JPMorgan sitting above the current fair value estimate.
- Upgrades that highlight a "luxury premium" returning suggest confidence that Ferrari can sustain pricing power and mix, which supports assumptions around margins and P/E resilience.
- Multiple target increases in both US$ and € terms signal that some analysts view the latest guidance and financial disclosures as sufficient to justify maintaining or expanding Ferrari's premium relative to peers.
- The combination of upgrades and higher targets implies that bullish analysts see execution on the current plan as broadly in line with, or supportive of, the Street's longer term growth and profitability assumptions.
Bearish Takeaways
- Bearish analysts have cut price targets in both US$ and €, indicating concern that prior expectations, including revenue and margin assumptions, may have been too optimistic for the current backdrop.
- Target reductions suggest more caution on how much investors should pay for Ferrari relative to its earnings profile, with some seeing less room for multiple expansion from here.
- The presence of both target hikes and cuts around the same reporting cycle points to meaningful debate around execution risk, particularly on translating guidance into consistent financial delivery.
- Equal Weight type ratings near price targets such as US$420 reflect a view that risk and reward are more balanced, with less conviction that current or higher valuations fully reflect potential growth and profitability outcomes.
What's in the News
- Ferrari shareholders approved a cash dividend of €3.615 per common share at the Annual General Meeting on April 15, 2026, for a total distribution of about €640m. The ex-dividend dates are April 20, 2026 on EXM and April 21, 2026 on NYSE, and payment is scheduled for May 5, 2026 (Key Developments).
- The company previously announced an intention to recommend the same €3.615 per share dividend, described as about 21% higher than the prior year and totalling about €640m, subject to shareholder approval at the April 15, 2026 AGM. The same expected ex-date, record date and payment date were later confirmed (Key Developments).
- For shareholders on the NYSE, the approved dividend will be paid in US$ using the official European Central Bank EUR/USD exchange rate on April 16, 2026 (Key Developments).
- Ferrari plans to launch the Ferrari 849 Testarossa in India on March 14, replacing the SF90 Stradale in the local lineup, with an indicated price around INR 100,000,000 ex-showroom. The model features a plug in hybrid powertrain rated at 1,050 bhp, which is described as the most powerful Ferrari model to date, and an electronically limited top speed of 330 kmph (Key Developments).
- Ferrari issued full year 2026 guidance targeting €7.50b in revenues, giving investors a reference point for upcoming financial reporting cycles (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value: Adjusted slightly higher from $425.62 to $428.18 per share, reflecting a modest uplift in the valuation anchor.
- Discount Rate: Trimmed marginally from 13.78% to 13.77%, a very small change in the risk assumption used in the model.
- Revenue Growth: Tweaked from 6.37% to 6.39%, indicating a small revision to expected euro revenue expansion in the forecast period.
- Net Profit Margin: Eased slightly from 22.94% to 22.90%, implying a minor reassessment of Ferrari's expected profitability level.
- Future P/E: Reduced from 48.02x to 47.32x, pointing to a modestly lower multiple assumption on Ferrari's forward earnings.
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