RACE: Future Cash Returns Will Be Underpinned By 2026 Earnings Guidance

Analysts have nudged the fair value estimate for Ferrari shares slightly lower to about $424 from roughly $432, while still pointing to updated models that reflect FY25 results and guidance, as well as a broadly supportive tone in recent price target revisions across several firms.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research on Ferrari offers a mix of constructive and cautious views, with several firms updating models around FY25 results and FY26 initial guidance. Price targets span both upward and downward revisions, and ratings range from more optimistic stances to neutral views, giving you a balanced picture of how execution and valuation are being weighed.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts are lifting price targets, with one move up to US$447 and another to US$420, pointing to updated models that incorporate the latest FY25 results and FY26 initial guidance.
• Estimates at some firms are described as broadly aligned with company guidance, which suggests that, in their view, the current outlook is sufficiently supported by the information management has provided.
• Target increases from several firms, including large global banks, signal that a portion of the Street still sees room for value in the shares after revisiting their models.
• Where analysts maintain more positive ratings, it is generally tied to confidence that the company can execute against its stated guidance and that current pricing can be justified by those assumptions.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts have reduced price targets in both US$ and € terms, with cuts such as a move to €360 from €415 and a separate trim to €355, suggesting a more conservative stance on how the shares should be valued.
• At least one firm has downgraded Ferrari to Hold from Buy, with the view that efforts to reset expectations are leading to what they describe as weak messaging, which they see as a near term overhang even though they do not cite a change in business fundamentals.
• Lowered targets and Hold ratings reflect concern that, at current levels, the risk and reward profile may be more balanced, which in their view may limit potential upside.
• Where models have been revised down, caution often ties back to how guidance is interpreted and how much flexibility the company may have if conditions or execution differ from current plans.

What's in the News

• Ferrari plans to recommend a dividend of €3.615 per common share, around 21% higher than the prior year, for a total of about €640m, subject to shareholder approval at the April 15, 2026 AGM, with a proposed payment date of May 5, 2026 (Key Developments).
• The company has provided 2026 earnings guidance targeting €7.50b in revenues, giving you a reference point for how management is framing the next financial year (Key Developments).
• Ferrari intends to launch the 849 Testarossa in India on March 14, with an expected price around INR 100,000,000 ex showroom, replacing the SF90 Stradale in the local lineup and positioned as the most powerful Ferrari model to date at a stated 1,050 bhp (Key Developments).
• The 849 Testarossa features a mid engine plug in hybrid setup with a reworked 4.0 litre twin turbo V8, three electric motors, a lithium ion battery, an electronically limited top speed of 330 kmph and a quoted 0 to 100 kmph time of under 2.3 seconds, plus a limited pure electric range up to 25 km (Key Developments).
• Between October 1, 2025 and December 30, 2025, Ferrari repurchased 717,508 shares for €247.05m, completing a €2,000m program that bought back 6,015,933 shares, or 3.34% of its share count, under the authorization announced on June 16, 2022 (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• Fair value was trimmed slightly to $423.87 from $431.54, a cut of about 1.8%.
• The discount rate was adjusted marginally lower to 13.86% from 13.88%, indicating only a very small change in the risk input used.
• The revenue growth forecast for the fiscal year was refined to 6.36% from 6.34%, a modest upward tweak to the euro sales growth assumption.
• The net profit margin edged up to 23.04% from 23.02%, implying a slightly higher expected share of euro earnings per euro of revenue.
• The future P/E multiple eased to 47.54x from 48.31x, reflecting a small reduction in the valuation multiple applied to projected earnings.