RACE: Premium Positioning And Special Series Mix Will Support Future Upside

Analysts have inched up their fair value estimate for Ferrari to about $436 from roughly $432, pointing to refreshed models that reflect updated company guidance, a slightly lower discount rate, and modest tweaks to revenue growth, margins, and future P/E assumptions after recent price target moves across the Street.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research on Ferrari shows a mix of optimism around its premium positioning and caution around expectations, communication, and valuation. Here is how the bullish and bearish analysts are framing it.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts highlight that updated models following FY25 results and FY26 initial guidance sit broadly in line with company guidance. They view this as supportive for execution on existing plans rather than requiring a major reset.
• Some price targets in the US market, including one at $420 and another at $454, point to confidence that Ferrari's business model can support higher implied P/E assumptions relative to broader European auto peers.
• Goldman points to what it sees as pressure on traditional European car makers and argues that the premium segment, including Ferrari, is being priced too conservatively. It views this as an opportunity for investors focused on higher quality earnings streams.
• Bullish analysts reference Ferrari's mix of higher priced Special Series volumes as a factor that can support revenue and margin assumptions in their models. This feeds into the higher fair value estimates.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts have cut some euro based price targets, for example to €355 and €360. They describe this as reflecting a more cautious stance on what they consider appropriate valuation levels relative to prior targets above €400.
• At least one downgrade to Hold, with a reduced target of €345 from €415, is tied to concerns about what is described as weak messaging. Efforts to reset expectations are seen as putting too much focus on negatives in the near term.
• Even where ratings are maintained at Neutral or Equal Weight, some analysts are signaling that the current share price already reflects ambitious expectations. This limits their willingness to move to more positive recommendations.
• Bearish analysts are not flagging a deterioration in underlying fundamentals in the provided comments. However, they are questioning how effectively the company is communicating its outlook, which they see as a risk for sentiment and valuation if not handled carefully.

What's in the News

• Ferrari intends to recommend a dividend of €3.615 per common share, around 21% above the prior year, for a total of about €640m, subject to shareholder approval at the April 15, 2026 AGM, with an expected ex-date of April 20 on EXM and April 21 on NYSE, record date of April 21, and payment date of May 5, 2026 (Key Developments).
• The company issued full year 2026 guidance targeting €7.50b in revenues (Key Developments).
• Between October 1 and December 30, 2025, Ferrari repurchased 717,508 shares for €247.05m, completing a total buyback of 6,015,933 shares, about 3.34% of the company, for €2,000m under the program announced on June 16, 2022 (Key Developments).
• S.Pellegrino announced a long-term global partnership with Ferrari that includes collaborations with Scuderia Ferrari HP and the Ferrari Challenge Trofeo Pirelli, with plans for co-branded products and global events aimed at younger consumers (Key Developments).
• Ferrari S.p.A. renewed and strengthened its multi-year partnership with Philip Morris International, which becomes a Premium Partner of Scuderia Ferrari HP and a Series Partner of the Ferrari Challenge Trofeo Pirelli starting January 1, 2026 (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value has risen slightly, with the model moving from about $431.78 to roughly $435.53 per share.
• Discount Rate has fallen meaningfully, shifting from about 14.78% to roughly 13.70%, which supports a higher present value in the model.
• Revenue Growth assumptions are slightly lower, moving from about 6.56% to roughly 6.50% a year in the updated inputs.
• Net Profit Margin has been trimmed, with the model adjusting from around 23.59% to roughly 23.02%.
• Future P/E is slightly lower, with the forward multiple easing from about 47.63x to roughly 47.34x in the refreshed estimates.