The analyst price target for Ferrari has been revised modestly lower, with fair value moving from about €441.39 to €431.78 as analysts factor in lower external price targets, a slightly higher discount rate, and updated assumptions on growth, margins, and future P/E multiples.
Analyst Commentary
Recent research on Ferrari reflects a mix of optimism on the business model and caution on communication, cost trends, and valuation assumptions. Price targets have generally been revised lower or initiated below prior bullish levels, which contributes to the modest reduction in fair value used in this analysis.
Bullish Takeaways
- Some bullish analysts highlight what they see as a robust business model with product launches that could support pricing power and mix. These can be important inputs for sustaining Ferrari's premium valuation multiples.
- JPMorgan points to upcoming product launches as an opportunity to support revenue mix and pricing. This supports their view that certain long term targets may be achievable on a faster timeline, even after trimming near term estimates.
- Goldman Sachs sees the premium automotive space as undervalued compared to other European car makers and expects Ferrari's higher priced Special Series volumes to be a key driver of selling prices and growth assumptions.
- Coverage initiations with Buy or Overweight ratings from large houses such as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, despite conservative tweaks to estimates, indicate that some analysts still see room for upside relative to their assessed fair value ranges.
Bearish Takeaways
- Several bearish analysts have reduced price targets, with cuts from around €415 to between €345 and €367, and one target lowered to €360. This contributes to a lower blended external target and a reduced fair value in this model.
- Some downgrades to Hold point to what is described as weak messaging and efforts to reset expectations, which can weigh on sentiment and support the use of slightly higher discount rates or more conservative execution assumptions.
- One research note flags a potentially higher fixed cost burden over the next two years, which can pressure margins and earnings estimates and, in turn, support lower target P/E multiples or a more cautious margin trajectory.
- Even where ratings remain positive, target cuts in both euros and US dollars indicate that analysts are incorporating more conservative assumptions on costs, valuation multiples, or both. This is consistent with the modest step down in this report's fair value estimate.
What's in the News
- Ferrari completed a share buyback program announced on June 16, 2022, repurchasing a total of 6,015,933 shares, representing 3.34% of the company, for €2,000 million, including 717,508 shares, or 0.4%, for €247.05 million between October 1, 2025 and December 30, 2025 (Key Developments).
- S.Pellegrino announced a long term global partnership with Ferrari, covering Scuderia Ferrari HP and Ferrari Challenge Trofeo Pirelli, aimed at joint brand activations focused on Italian heritage, premium lifestyle positioning, and engagement with younger consumers (Key Developments).
- Ferrari S.p.A. renewed and strengthened its multi year collaboration with Philip Morris International, which becomes a Premium Partner of Scuderia Ferrari HP and a Series Partner of the Ferrari Challenge Trofeo Pirelli under an agreement effective January 1, 2026 (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value: revised modestly lower from about €441.39 to about €431.78, a reduction of around €9.61.
- Discount Rate: nudged higher from about 14.47% to about 14.78%, implying a slightly more conservative stance on risk.
- Revenue Growth: adjusted marginally higher from about 6.50% to about 6.56%, a very small uplift in projected top line expansion.
- Net Profit Margin: moved slightly higher from about 23.50% to about 23.59%, reflecting a small tweak in long term profitability assumptions.
- Future P/E: trimmed from about 49.21x to about 47.63x, indicating a slightly lower multiple applied to Ferrari's expected earnings.
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AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.