Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Ferrari slightly lower to €441.39 from €447.30, reflecting modestly softer revenue growth and margin assumptions. The change also points to recent price target cuts and rating downgrades that are focused on communication issues rather than core business fundamentals.
Analyst Commentary
Recent research paints a mixed picture for Ferrari, with most of the discussion centered on communication, valuation and execution rather than a sharp reassessment of the business model itself.
Bullish Takeaways
- Goldman Sachs sees Ferrari as part of an undervalued premium auto segment, pointing to what it views as attractive positioning relative to mass market European car makers that currently trade on negative industrial stub valuations.
- Some bullish analysts highlight Ferrari's higher priced Special Series volumes as a key support for pricing power and potential growth in revenue mix, which they see as important for sustaining a premium equity valuation.
- JPMorgan describes Ferrari's business model as robust and sees upcoming product launches as creating opportunities to improve pricing and mix, which it links to the potential to reach long term targets earlier than planned.
- Several firms maintain Buy or Overweight ratings, even as they trim price targets, signaling continued confidence in Ferrari's ability to execute on its long term plan despite nearer term estimate adjustments.
Bearish Takeaways
- Bearish analysts lowering ratings to Hold point to "weak messaging" and a focus on resetting expectations, which they see as weighing on sentiment and contributing to lower fair value and price targets.
- Multiple firms have reduced price targets in both euro and US dollar terms, reflecting more cautious assumptions on margins, fixed cost burdens over the next two years and the valuation premium relative to other luxury peers.
- One firm explicitly applies a discount versus luxury peers such as Hermès, arguing that Ferrari needs to restore confidence to justify previous valuation levels, particularly after guidance changes.
- Muted expectations around upcoming quarters, even following a guidance raise, suggest that some analysts see limited room for positive surprise in the near term, which can cap upside in their models until there is clearer evidence of execution against targets.
What’s in the News
- Ferrari plans to launch a new digital token that select wealthy clients can use in an auction for a Ferrari 499P, targeting interest from younger tech entrepreneurs (Reuters).
- Ferrari reports that, from October 1, 2025 to December 30, 2025, it repurchased 717,508 shares, representing 0.4% of its share capital for €247.05m, completing a total buyback of 6,015,933 shares or 3.34% for €2b under the program announced on June 16, 2022.
- Earlier in the buyback program, from July 1, 2025 to September 30, 2025, Ferrari repurchased 322,275 shares, representing 0.18% for €132m, bringing cumulative repurchases at that point to 5,298,425 shares or 2.93% for €1,752.95m.
- Ferrari renewed and expanded its multi year partnership with Philip Morris International, which becomes a Premium Partner of Scuderia Ferrari HP and a Series Partner of the Ferrari Challenge Trofeo Pirelli starting January 1, 2026.
- S.Pellegrino announced a long term global partnership with Ferrari, covering Scuderia Ferrari HP and Ferrari Challenge Trofeo Pirelli, with plans for co branded products, events and consumer experiences that highlight shared Italian heritage and premium positioning.
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate eased slightly to €441.39 from €447.30, reflecting modestly softer underlying assumptions.
- Discount Rate moved marginally higher to 14.47% from 14.45%, indicating a very small adjustment to the required return used in the model.
- Revenue Growth was revised slightly lower to 6.50% from 6.60%, pointing to a more cautious outlook on top line expansion in the forecasts provided.
- Net Profit Margin was trimmed a touch to 23.50% from 23.57%, implying a very modest change in expected profitability assumptions.
- Future P/E was kept effectively unchanged at 49.21x versus 49.23x, signaling only a minimal tweak to the valuation multiple applied.
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