RACE: Special Series Pricing And Buybacks Will Support Premium Multiple

Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Ferrari slightly lower to about $447 from about $453, reflecting modest adjustments to the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E assumptions as they factor in recent price target trims and an ongoing focus on pricing power in the high-end segment.

Analyst Commentary

Street research on Ferrari has centered on how its luxury positioning, pricing power, and cost base feed into valuation, with a mix of optimism on execution and caution on cost inflation and relative pricing versus peers.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts highlight Ferrari's exposure to higher priced Special Series models, which they see as a key lever for higher average selling prices and potential growth in revenue mix.
• Some see the business model as robust, pointing to upcoming product launches as a way to support pricing and mix, which could help Ferrari work toward its long term financial targets.
• Goldman Sachs frames the premium auto segment as undervalued compared with broader European car makers, which feeds into a more supportive view on Ferrari's valuation despite sector wide pressures.
• Certain research notes suggest that even with trimmed estimates, updated plans are viewed as prudent rather than a disappointment, with peer comparisons to luxury names like Hermes still used as reference points in valuation work.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts point to repeated price target reductions in both US$ and € terms as a sign that prior expectations for Ferrari were too optimistic relative to execution and cost trends.
• Some research flags a potentially higher fixed cost burden over the next two years, which, if not offset by pricing and mix, could pressure profitability and justify more conservative valuation multiples.
• Citi maintains a Sell stance alongside a lower €340 price target, reflecting a more cautious view on how current pricing and profitability stack up against the share price.
• Several firms now apply a discount to top tier luxury peers like Hermes in their peer based P/E work, indicating that confidence in Ferrari's premium rating has softened until execution and investor sentiment improve.

What's in the News

• Ferrari plans to launch a new digital token that select high net worth clients can use in an auction for a Ferrari 499P, targeting wealthier, younger tech entrepreneurs as a niche buyer group (Reuters).
• The company authorized a new share repurchase program of up to €3.5b, following Board approval of a buyback plan on October 9, 2025. This signals an ongoing focus on returning capital to shareholders.
• Ferrari reported updates on its existing buyback, with 6,015,933 shares repurchased for €2,000m under the program announced on June 16, 2022, equivalent to 3.34% of its share capital.
• The company adjusted 2025 earnings guidance, now expecting net revenues to be greater than or equal to €7.1b, and also outlined 2030 targets that include expected net revenues of about €9.0b and EBIT of at least €2.75b.
• Ferrari renewed and strengthened its multi year partnership with Philip Morris International and entered a long term global partnership with S.Pellegrino, both focused on Scuderia Ferrari HP and Ferrari Challenge Trofeo Pirelli branding and events.

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value Estimate was adjusted slightly lower from about $453.42 to about $447.30 per share.
• The Discount Rate edged down from about 14.66% to about 14.45%, reflecting a small change in the required return assumption.
• Revenue Growth moved from about 6.68% to about 6.60%, indicating a modestly more conservative growth outlook in the model.
• Net Profit Margin shifted from about 23.75% to about 23.57%, a small reduction in assumed profitability.
• Future P/E was trimmed from about 49.63x to about 49.23x, implying a slightly lower valuation multiple applied to Ferrari's earnings in the model.