Update shared on 23 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 19%Analysts have lowered their price target for Fox Factory Holding significantly, from $28.14 to $22.86. They cite recent weakness in the Specialty Sports Group segment and a softer sales outlook as key factors.
Analyst Commentary
Recent analyst updates reflect a shift in sentiment toward Fox Factory Holding, as price targets were sharply reduced due to operational headwinds and revised guidance. Analysts have focused on both strengths and vulnerabilities within the company's various business segments.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts see continued momentum in the Powered Vehicles Group. This is supported by new motorcycle suspension offerings that are gaining traction in the market.
- Aftermarket Accessories Group benefits from resilient demand, with ongoing interest from customers seeking upgrades and replacements.
- Despite recent setbacks, analysts believe operational improvements in certain segments could support a rebound if the company effectively navigates current inventory dynamics.
Bearish Takeaways
- Bearish analysts highlight the underperformance in the Specialty Sports Group and point to weaker order trends among the Bike and Marucci businesses, as retailers manage inventory cautiously.
- Lower than expected third quarter earnings per share and reduced full-year guidance have raised concerns regarding the company’s near-term execution.
- Cutbacks in valuation estimates reflect worries about sales visibility and the pace of demand recovery across key categories.
- The combination of a softer sales outlook and persistent inventory challenges remains a key hurdle to achieving near-term growth targets.
What's in the News
- Fox Factory Holding Corp. updated its Fourth Quarter 2025 earnings guidance, with net sales now expected in the range of $340 million to $370 million. This revises the projection to the lower half of its prior guidance. (Key Developments)
- The company revised its full-year 2025 outlook, forecasting net sales of $1.445 billion to $1.475 billion, compared to previous guidance of $1.45 billion to $1.51 billion. (Key Developments)
- Fox Factory Holding introduced Live Valve, an advanced semi-active suspension system for trucks and Jeeps that adapts to terrain and driver input. Broad availability is expected in early 2026. (Key Developments)
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target has fallen significantly, declining from $28.14 to $22.86.
- The discount rate has risen from 10.4% to 11.9%, indicating higher perceived risk in future cash flows.
- The revenue growth estimate has dropped from 4.3% to 3.5%, reflecting softer sales expectations.
- Net profit margin is now forecast to be lower, moving from 5.5% down to 4.7%.
- The future P/E ratio has edged up slightly, from 17.5x to 17.8x, suggesting a modest change in relative valuation.
Disclaimer
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