Update shared on 12 Dec 2025
Fair value Increased 1.89%Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Alchip Technologies from $5,280 to $5,380, reflecting higher expected revenue growth despite a slightly lower projected profit margin and a reduced future price to earnings multiple.
What's in the News
- Alchip and d-Matrix are co-developing what is described as the world's first 3D DRAM based datacenter inference accelerator, targeting up to 10x faster AI inference than HBM4 based solutions for generative and agentic AI workloads (company announcement).
- The collaboration with d-Matrix has already validated the 3DIMC technology on Pavehawk test silicon, with commercial deployment planned on the upcoming Raptor inference accelerator (company announcement).
- Alchip joined the Arm Total Design ecosystem to accelerate development of Arm Neoverse based custom silicon, particularly advanced 3 nm and 2 nm SoCs for hyperscalers, AI and cloud infrastructure (company announcement).
- At TSMC's 2025 North America OIP Forum, Alchip and Ayar Labs unveiled a co-packaged optics solution that replaces copper interconnects to support over 100 Tbps of scale-up bandwidth per AI accelerator and more than 256 optical ports per device (company announcement).
- Management issued guidance indicating sequential NRE revenue growth and better profitability for the fourth quarter of 2025, while expecting a significant jump in total revenue for 2026 despite continued near-term weakness in overall fourth quarter revenue (earnings guidance).
Valuation Changes
- The fair value estimate has risen slightly from NT$5,280 to NT$5,380, reflecting stronger projected topline performance.
- The discount rate has increased modestly from 8.69% to 9.03%, implying a slightly higher perceived risk or required return.
- Revenue growth expectations have risen significantly from about 49.6% to 72.5%, indicating a meaningfully more optimistic demand outlook.
- The net profit margin forecast has edged down from roughly 11.6% to 10.9%, suggesting higher costs or more conservative profitability assumptions.
- The future P/E multiple has fallen from about 30.8x to 26.1x, indicating a more conservative valuation despite stronger growth expectations.
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