Here are data based on 3rd quarter:
BVPS ~ EUR 171.5
Normalized ROE: 13–16%
Payout: 50–60%
CET1 above SREP
Regarding publish strategy for the 2026
Strategy target:
Recurring revenues:
EUR 1.1bn → > EUR 2.0bn
Profit:
EUR 0.5bn → > EUR 1.0bn
CIR:
46% → <45%
ROE:
>15% (including 1–2 p.p. uplift from strategic initiatives)
P/B:
0.8x → >1.0x
Payout ratio:
40% → 50–60%
Capital and risk
CET1:
16.4% → >13%
Assumptions
NIM remains >3.2% (this might be difficult to keep)
CIR improves toward 43% (now is cca 45%)
Strong growth in fee income ( they plan to proceed with acquisitions)
ROE 16–17% ( now is around 15%)
Payout 60%
Outcome
BVPS 2030: ~EUR 250
P/B: 1.15x
Share price: ~EUR 285
Cumulative dividends: ~EUR 75
👉 Total value in 2030: ~EUR 360
Scenario is bullish but there is a room to achieve this. A possible future greater presence on the Croatian market, which is burdened with certain problems from the political past of relations between Slovenia and Croatia, would probably catapult the share above €360 by 2030.
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The user GoranLagea holds no position in LJSE:NLBR. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
