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J36: Share Buybacks And Margin Stability Will Support Measured Upside Ahead

Geopolitical Tensions And Regulatory Risks Will Erode Value

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J36
AnalystLowTarget
Not Invested
Published 27 Jul 2025

Update shared on 12 Dec 2025

Fair value Increased 49%
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AnalystLowTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
61.6%
7D
2.2%

Analysts have raised their price target for Jardine Matheson Holdings from approximately $46.50 to $69.50, citing expectations of stabilizing revenues, a modestly stronger profit margin, and support for a higher future P/E multiple.

What's in the News

  • Reaffirmed full year 2025 earnings guidance, with profit expectations left unchanged, signaling confidence in the current outlook (company guidance)
  • Board of Directors authorized a new share buyback plan on November 3, 2025, reinforcing capital return to shareholders (company announcement)
  • Announced a share repurchase program of up to $250 million, with all repurchased shares to be cancelled and the program running through 2026, effectively reducing share capital (company announcement)

Valuation Changes

  • The fair value estimate has risen significantly from $46.50 to $69.50 per share, reflecting a higher assessed intrinsic value.
  • The discount rate has decreased slightly from 8.75% to about 8.50%, implying a marginally lower required return on equity.
  • The revenue growth assumption has improved meaningfully from a contraction of approximately 3.0% to a near-flat profile of about a 0.1% decline.
  • The net profit margin forecast has increased modestly from roughly 6.38% to about 6.57%, indicating expectations for slightly better profitability.
  • The future P/E multiple assumption has risen notably from about 8.6x to roughly 11.1x, supporting a higher valuation framework.

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Disclaimer

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