EQT: Future Deals And Premium Pricing Will Face Tighter Execution Test

Analysts have modestly raised their price target on EQT, reflecting an increase in estimated fair value from approximately SEK 295 to about SEK 323, supported by expectations for slightly faster revenue growth, improved profit margins, and a stable premium valuation multiple.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research updates have generally supported a constructive view on EQT, with major houses lifting price targets while largely maintaining existing ratings. These moves reflect confidence that the company can deliver on slightly faster growth and sustain strong profitability, even as the stock already trades at a premium valuation.

At the same time, some analysts are signaling that upside could be more incremental from here. The latest price target revisions, including from JPMorgan, suggest that while the long term growth story remains intact, expectations are becoming more finely balanced as execution risks and market conditions are reassessed.

Overall, the analyst community appears to be converging on a view that EQT’s current valuation already discounts a substantial portion of the anticipated growth trajectory. This leaves less room for disappointment on earnings delivery, fundraising momentum, and fee related income trends.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts caution that, despite recent target increases, EQT is priced for continued strong execution. They see limited valuation cushion if fundraising or deployment slows.
• Some see the premium multiple as vulnerable to any setback in fee growth or performance fees, particularly if macro conditions weigh on deal activity and portfolio exits.
• Cautious commentary points to the risk that operating leverage could work in reverse if cost growth outpaces management fees, putting pressure on margins and earnings visibility.
• There is concern that, after a strong rerating, incremental upside may depend on consistently beating guidance. This raises the risk of sharper share price reactions to any negative surprises.

What's in the News

• EQT is reportedly weighing a U.S. IPO of its waste management portfolio company Reworld that could raise at least $1 billion, with a listing possible as soon as next year, working alongside Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Royal Bank of Canada (Bloomberg).
• American Tower and EQT are among potential bidders considering offers for French tower company TDF Infrastructure, with first round bids expected around mid November, in a process likely to attract other infrastructure focused investors (Bloomberg).
• Market chatter suggests EQT has been in takeover talks to acquire Australian insurance broker AUB Group, which halted trading ahead of a further announcement to the ASX, fueling speculation about a possible $4 billion transaction (Financial Times and ASX related reporting).
• EQT has completed a buyback tranche, repurchasing 5,535,521 shares, or about 0.47% of its share capital, for a total consideration of SEK 1.86 billion under its program announced in May 2025 (company disclosures).
• EQT has reportedly launched the sale of its Nordic digital infrastructure business GlobalConnect, seeking a potential valuation of around EUR 8 billion, with Goldman Sachs mandated to oversee a full divestment process (Financial Times and Reuters).

Valuation Changes

• The Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly from around SEK 295 to approximately SEK 323, reflecting a modest upgrade to the long term outlook.
• The Discount Rate has edged up marginally from about 6.21% to roughly 6.24%, implying a slightly higher required return in the valuation model.
• Revenue Growth has increased slightly from around 11.9% to approximately 12.6% annually, indicating a modestly more optimistic top line trajectory.
• The Net Profit Margin has risen meaningfully from roughly 45.7% to just over 49.3%, pointing to improved expectations for operating efficiency and earnings quality.
• The future P/E multiple has ticked up slightly from about 21.5x to roughly 21.7x, suggesting the premium valuation is expected to remain broadly intact.