Update shared on12 Oct 2025
Fair value Decreased 2.23%Analysts have lowered their fair value estimate for Evolution from SEK 907.31 to SEK 887.09. They cite slower expected revenue growth and a slightly reduced discount rate as key factors behind the updated outlook.
Analyst Commentary
Recent street research reveals a mix of optimism and caution among analysts covering Evolution. Divergent analyst actions reflect differing assessments of the company's outlook and execution capabilities.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts have raised price targets for Evolution, citing resilient earnings performance and strong execution despite a challenging macroeconomic backdrop.
- Confidence in the company's ability to drive sustained revenue growth over the long term continues to support higher fair value estimates from some research houses.
- Positive views are underpinned by Evolution's robust market position, which has enabled it to maintain momentum even as revenue growth projections moderate.
- Maintained "Buy" or equivalent ratings from select analysts indicate that Evolution remains a favored name in the sector for those focused on secular growth opportunities.
- Bearish analysts have expressed concern over a structurally lower growth trajectory, with some lowering both price targets and ratings to reflect more conservative expectations.
- Downward revisions to targets are attributed to expectations that consensus estimates do not fully account for anticipated slower revenue expansion in coming years.
- There is a clear emphasis on valuation, as analysts wary of near-term risks cite a disconnect between current market expectations and Evolution's revised growth algorithm.
- Reduced fair value estimates signal increased caution on long-term execution, as well as uncertainties about the company's ability to sustain previous growth rates.
What's in the News
- Evolution has completed the repurchase of 1,115,392 shares between May 15, 2025 and June 30, 2025. This represents 0.55% of its share capital for €65.4 million under the buyback program announced on May 19, 2025 (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate has decreased slightly from SEK 907.31 to SEK 887.09, reflecting updated assumptions on future growth and risk.
- Discount Rate has fallen marginally to 6.28% from 6.36%, indicating a modest reduction in the risk premium applied.
- Revenue Growth Forecast has edged down from 5.87% to 5.62%, suggesting analysts expect a slower pace of expansion.
- Net Profit Margin projection has risen slightly, moving from 49.29% to 49.37%, signaling expectations for stable or marginally higher profitability levels.
- Future Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio has dropped significantly from 156.87x to 13.92x. This points to a more conservative view on valuation multiples.
Disclaimer
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